MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Tuesday’s Slate (7/25/23)
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With playoff battles, divisional clashes, and two crosstown, interleague rivalries on tap, Tuesday’s 15-game slate is absolutely packed with exciting MLB action and with it, plenty of betting value. Let’s take a look at the MLB’s best bets of the day for 7/25/2023 and make some predictions.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: Tigers ML (-125)
Starting Pitchers: RHP Griffin Canning (6-4, 4.52 ERA) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (6-5, 2.69 ERA)
Let’s start with a bet that could be surprising on the surface; the Tigers haven’t been a great squad this year, certainly not one you’d want to make a habit of investing in when the odds are in the minus. That being said, they’re in a good run of form right now with 7 wins in their past 11 games, and they have a pretty decent starting pitching advantage on Tuesday.
Griffin Canning has had a rough year for the Angels, and was beginning to stabilize a bit, but has had a rough last 3 starts. He’s going up against Eduardo Rodriguez, a veteran lefty who has found by far his best form with a mid-2’s ERA and a WHIP below 1.000. With LA looking to potentially blow things up at the impending deadline, this is a good spot to fade Canning and invest in Rodriguez’s stellar performance.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Orioles ML (+105)
Starting Pitchers: RHP Kyle Gibson (9-6, 4.76 ERA) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (11-4, 4.11 ERA)
This one just might be my bet of the day- Philly has lost 5 of their past 6 games, putting them in a very tough position at the deadline as a team that came into the season with high hopes, and isn’t out by any measure, but is not playing well. Conversely, the Orioles are in a 13-2 run which has them atop the entire AL, and they are soundly the hottest team in the game, as they really have been since Adley Rutschman’s debut over a year ago. Baltimore’s turnaround is one of the quickest I can remember, and certainly one of the most intriguing stories in baseball today.
Yes, they do appear to have a slight pitching disadvantage, but it’s not like Philly is trotting out an ace either. Both of these guys have ERAs in the 4’s and both have given up exactly 10 earned runs over their past 3 starts, in an almost-identical amount of innings. I’m not entirely sure why Baltimore has plus-odds, but I’d take immediate advantage.
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Rays -1.5 (+110)
Starting Pitchers: RHP Edward Cabrera (5-5, 4.50 ERA) vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow (3-3, 3.62 ERA)
No, the Rays aren’t in the incredible early-season form they showed, but make no mistake; this is still a really good baseball team. There’s some measure of bad luck in their current skid, as they’ve had some tough results against possibly the three best teams in the sport right now, Atlanta, Texas, and Baltimore. Tyler Glasnow has been a definitive bright spot, and continues to have some of the best stuff in the sport, so he’s never a bad guy to invest in.
He’s going up against a team in even worse form than Tampa; the Marlins just snapped an 8-game losing streak with a tight home win to avoid the sweep at the hands of a bad Rockies team. Their starting pitcher will be Edward Cabrera, who is having a tough year and struggles especially on the road with an ERA of nearly 6.00, so the odds are good for the Rays to pick up a much-needed confidence blowout.
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox: Cubs ML (-115)
Starting Pitchers: RHP Kyle Hendricks (3-4, 3.38 ERA) vs. RHP Michael Kopech (4-8, 4.29 ERA)
I am not nearly done harping on the fact that the 2023 Cubs are a solid if unspectacular, but deeply unlucky ballclub. They’re 10th in the league in runs scored and scoring differential, but are well below .500 and out of the playoffs. They’re also equipped with some strong starting pitchers, one of which is on the mound on Tuesday against their crosstown rivals. That would be Kyle Hendricks, who has a WHIP just over 1.000 to go with a very respectable ERA.
Conversely, the White Sox actually are patently awful. They’re near the bottom of the league in both differential and good old wins and losses, as they’re unable to succeed even in a very weak AL Central. Michael Kopech, Tuesday’s starter, has also had a rough one, as he’s struggled a lot with walks and is in a particularly bad run of form this July. I love the Cubs in this classic matchup, and am really excited to see how it plays out.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers: Reds ML (+125), u8 runs (-110)
Starting Pitchers: RHP Kyle Hendricks (3-4, 3.38 ERA) vs. RHP Michael Kopech (4-8, 4.29 ERA)
You never need an excuse to watch Elly De La Cruz, one of the most exciting baseball talents in today’s league, but if you want one anyway, consider investing in his Reds today at +125 on the moneyline. They continue to put up top-10 offensive numbers, and are right in the thick of a division race at just 1.5 games behind the Brewers, who they are visiting on Tuesday.
Both teams actually have a small negative run differential, so it’s not like Milwaukee should be treated as an iron-clad favorite. Yes, they’re at home, but Cincy is throwing a really strong starter in rookie Andrew Abbott, who has been outstanding over the first 9 starts of his career with an ERA barely above 2.00 and a WHIP below 1.000. That being said, Corbin Burnes is no slouch and has had an excellent July with a 1.33 ERA across 4 starts, so in addition to Cincy’s ML, I love the under here. It was a 3-2 game on Monday with a much weaker starting pitching matchup, so there’s no reason to expect a barn-burner in Milwaukee today.
