MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Angels vs. Padres, Marlins vs. Cardinals & More from Tuesday’s Slate (7/4/23)

What’s more American than baseball? Every team will be in action on the Fourth of July, with games spread throughout the day as America celebrates. You can celebrate with some of the day’s best bets. Let’s take a look at the odds and which bets are worth taking a close look at on Tuesday.

MLB best bets for July 4

Here’s a look at the best bets from Tuesday’s holiday slate of MLB games.

Marlins -1.5 vs. Cardinals (+125)

Oddsmakers are underestimating just how bad Adam Wainwright has been this year. The 40-year-old imploded against the Astros in his last start, when Houston’s over/under was only 4.5 runs. Even with the Marlins’ offense being much more inconsistent, it feels like they should be able to win this game comfortably.

The numbers tell the story for Wainwright. He’s allowing 14.3 hits per nine innings this season, including 11 in three innings against the Cubs and more hits than outs against Houston. It’s not just the occasional home run that’s getting Wainwright, it’s a constant bludgeoning of hit after hit.

The Marlins have a few guys who can do that, none better than Luis Arraez. The Marlins don’t hit any better at home than they do on the road – only 3.9 runs per game – but with the way Jesus Luzardo has been pitching, a comfortable win is easily within reach. Luzardo is coming off back-to-back scoreless starts and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Angels Moneyline (-102) vs. Padres

The Angels are 11-5 in games started by Shohei Ohtani this season, including 4-2 on the road. You could argue that record should be even better with the way Ohtani has pitched (and hit), but it’s a good sign with the Angels facing a Padres team that simply isn’t very good right now.

Aside from a recent two-homer game by Manny Machado, it’s been tough to find much offense for the Padres outside of Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. San Diego’s lineup has been performing better than it did in May, but this Padres team isn’t living up to expectations and has a dismal record in one-run games. It would be surprising if they won this series so easily by taking Tuesday’s game.

Ohtani’s historic offensive month shouldn’t overshadow how dominant he’s been on the mound. With 22 strikeouts between his last two starts, Ohtani seems to be getting closer to where he was during his dominant April. That spells bad news for a Padres team that can’t seem to put together a clean nine innings right now.

Athletics Moneyline (+146) vs. Tigers

The A’s don’t win much, but they’ve shown that they can win here and there – and that has benefited bettors who take advantage of their long odds. Tuesday’s game is one they have a legitimate chance of winning.

Oakland’s lineup is set to face Tigers starter Tarik Skubal, who had a terrific start to the 2022 season before hitting a wall and suffering an injury that has kept him out ever since. With Skubal making his season debut on Tuesday, he’s a complete unknown. The A’s offense has responded pretty well to being on the wrong end of a perfect game, scoring seven runs in three consecutive games. This lineup could be in position to pounce.

JP Sears will get the start for Oakland. Sears is coming off a rough outing against the Yankees but had a 3.14 ERA and .206 opponent AVG in his previous 10 starts. The Tigers could be a great bounce-back opportunity for the young starter.

Isaac Paredes to Hit a Home Run (+370)

The Rays have had a few players find their power stroke lately, including Randy Arozarena and Jose Siri, but playing the numbers game with Isaac Paredes might be the best bet against Aaron Nola. Nola has allowed at least one home run in 12 of his last 13 starts, and he’s been consistently mediocre throughout the season.

The Rays might not be hitting like they did earlier in the season, but their scoring outbursts against the Diamondbacks are a reminder they can do damage to vulnerable pitchers. Paredes has 12 home runs and a .901 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, and he carries a 1.049 OPS with six home runs in his last 22 games. His chances of homering Tuesday seem better than 1-in-4.