MLB Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Phillies vs. Mets, Angels vs. Rockies & More on Friday’s Slate (6/23/23)
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This article analyzes the betting odds and best bets to make on moneylines, run lines and over/under totals for MLB games on Friday, June 23. There are 14 games on the 6/23/23 MLB slate offering plenty of betting options, including a few marquee matchups like Phillies vs. Mets, Astros vs. Dodgers and Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
MLB Best Bets for Friday, June 23
Here are the best moneyline, spread and over/under bets for Friday, June 23.
Pirates moneyline (+160) vs. Marlins
Starting pitchers: RHP Luis Ortiz (1-3, 4.30 ERA) vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo (6-5, 4.09 ERA)
After a gut-wrenching loss last night, blowing a 3-run lead in the eighth inning, the Pirates will bounce back tonight and get the road win against Miami.
The Pirates are much better against lefties than they are against righties, so they should benefit from facing lefty Jesus Luzardo today. They are 12th in the league in wRC+ against lefties (106) and just 22nd against righties (89), according to FanGraphs.
The Marlins are also better against lefties (113 wRC+, 7th), but they are facing a righty in the Pirates’ Luis Ortiz. Miami is just 21st in wRC+ against righties (93).
Luzardo has better numbers overall this season (3.70 xFIP) and has been a stabilizing presence in the Marlins’ rotation. But Ortiz has pitched much better in his last two starts with a 3.72 xFIP (compared to 4.89 for the season).
Given the hitting splits, the Pirates represent a good value at +160 moneyline odds.
Angels vs. Rockies under 11.5 runs (-110)
Starting pitchers: LHP Patrick Sandoval (4-6, 4.08 ERA) vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (4-8, 4.48 ERA)
With two average (at best) pitchers on the mound in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, the total for this game is at a lofty 11.5 runs. But it’s important to note that both starters in this game are lefties, and Colorado has been comically bad against lefties this season.
The Rockies have a horrendous 63 wRC+ against lefties, 15 lower than the next closest team. Not only are they the worst in the league against lefties, but they are the worst team against lefties in over 20 years!
Angels starter Patrick Sandoval (4.49 xFIP) is a far cry from the career year he had last season (2.91 ERA, 3.67 xFIP), but he is more than capable of shutting down this Rockies lineup.
The Angels’ lineup is far more dangerous. They have a 110 wRC+ overall (5th best) and a 109 wRC+ against lefties (10th). Rockies starter Kyle Freeland had more respectable metrics before getting rocked for 7 earned runs in 4-1/3 innings against Atlanta in his last start, and plenty of pitchers have struggled against the Braves this season.
Despite pitching at Coors Field, Freeland has been much better at home (3.19 ERA, 3.58 FIP) than he has on the road (5.92 ERA, 6.14 FIP). The Angels should be able to score on him, but it won’t be enough to push the total over 11.5.
While we’re at it, feel free to add the Angels’ moneyline at -150 to your ticket along with the under.
Mets moneyline (+100) vs. Phillies
Starting pitchers: RHP Kodai Senga (6-4, 3.53 ERA) vs. RHP Taijuan Walker (7-3, 4.31 ERA)
Just when the Phillies looked like they were starting to regain their 2022 World Series form, they dropped two against Atlanta including an excruciating 10th-inning implosion last night. Now they face another division rival who swept them in New York a few weeks ago.
No matter how their respective seasons are going, the Mets always seem to have the Phillies’ number. They went 14-5 against them last season including 7-3 at Citizens Bank Park.
Although Taijuan Walker has been excellent over the last month (1.50 ERA, 3.15 FIP in 24 innings across four starts), the Mets have the edge in the pitching matchup. In those last four starts, Walker’s worst outing came on June 1 against the Mets, when he allowed three earned runs over four innings and took the L against his former team.
Senga, on the other hand, allowed just one baserunner in seven innings and struck out nine Phillies batters. The Mets are also coming off an off day and have a more rested bullpen, while the Phillies used several of their best relief arms yesterday.
Trust the recent history and take the Mets at even money tonight.
