MLB Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 4/24/19

All Time Results: 0-0-0, 0.0 Units

St. Louis Cardinals -124 vs. Milwaukee Brewers – 1 Unit

I like the Cardinals to finish off a series sweep of the Brewers today.  Cards starting pitcher Adam Wainwright hasn’t been his former All-Star self in recent years, but the Cards have won his last 2 starts with Wainwright reaching 6 innings in both contests.  If Wainwright can keep the Cards in the game, the Cardinals boast the 4th best Bullpen ERA in the MLB.

Milwaukee’s Bullpen on the other hand is 22nd in the MLB, with an ERA of almost 5. Last year the bullpen was a calling card for the Brew Crew – but this year they have been a liability. Without a litany of aces, the bullpen might have been too heavily worked last season and continuing into this season. The Brewers really miss their ace, Jimmy Nelson.  The rest of the pitching staff have had to pick up the slack to not much avail.

The Brewers are 0-3 in Jhoulys Chacin’s last 3 starts.

After Lorenzo Cain & Christian Yellich, Brewers have a thin lineup. I like the veteran Wainwright’s ability to minimize the damage from these two studs and help his team win the game.

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds Under 9.5 runs – 1 Unit

In his first ever big league start, Braves Pitcher Mike Soroka held a decent Diamondbacks order to 1 run over 5 innings.  I think we are getting some value here as the market will be hesitant to judge a rookie pitcher to be anything other than league-average.  The fact that he happened to lose his first start only helps to minimize his marketplace value. New pitchers have the advantage of not being well scouted and I look for Soroka to have another strong performance.

Cincinnati boasts the 3rd best Bullpen Era at 3.33.  They have been at their best against right hand batters, holding them to a paltry .168 BA.  If the Reds can neutralize the Braves two biggest RH bats, Dansby Swanson and Ronald Acuna Jr. I like the total to stay under 9.5.

Seattle Mariners +160 @ San Diego Padres – 1 Unit

Backing another old-head in Felix Hernandez. King Felix – like Adam Wainwright – isn’t the colossus he once was, but might not have fallen as far as people think. Hernandez has allowed 3 runs or fewer in 3 of his last 4 starts and some of what he has lost in velocity he has replaced with veteran guile. Hernandez has had a strong record in San Diego for his career, posting a 2.88 ERA in 13 career starts.

Mariners in general have been monsters on the road, boasting an 11-2 record.

Mariners backers are enjoying the best season in the MLB. If you bet Seattle on the ML every single game you would be up a solid 9.1 units. Still, I haven’t heard much conversation about their improvement and don’t think the marketplace has adjusted enough to their stellar start.

San Diego Padres Chris Paddack is an impressive rookie.  That said, I think his hot start is somewhat unsustainable as scouts focus in on him. He had his worst game of the season last time out, earning his first loss and allowing not only his first but his first 2 career home runs.

  
Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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