MLB Betting Picks with Lines & Odds 4/29/19

Fridays’s Results: 1-1-1
All-time Results: 5-4-1, +1.02 Units

Milwaukee Brewers -112 @ Colorado Rockies – 1 Unit
Milwaukee Brewers First 5 Innings -112 @ Colorado Rockies – 1 Unit

Peter Davidson look-alike, Christian Yelich tied and MLB record last game with his 14th Home Run before May 1st. One player does not make the difference in baseball the way they might in soccer or basketball, but I feel there are times where phenomenal performances begin to lift up an entire team, a la Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers run from obscurity to the NLCS in 2008.

Small sample size, but Brewers pitchers Zach Davies has been far superior to Rockies starter Kyle Freeland so far in 2019. Davies has put up s 2-0 record with a 1.65 ERA to the start the season. He might regress to his 2-7 2018 ways, or he might have turned a corner and be a much needed reliable starter for a Brewers team without their ace Jimmy Nelson.

Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is getting off of the 10-day DL after dealing with a blister on his throwing hand. He had a great overall year in 2018 with a sub 3 ERA and 25 quality starts, but there’s a chance this injury will prevent him from returning to peak form just yet.

Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 at Coors Field and 8-4 overall vs. the Rockies.

Adding a play on Brewers First 5 here on account of Milwaukee’s poor Bullpen this season. Milwaukee is the 7th most profitable First Five Innings team to bet on so far this season, while the Rockies are the 2nd least profitable.

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs (-116) – 1 Unit

While the Giants bats looked to be in a slumber to the start the season, they have scored closer to league average over the past couple weeks. Dodgers Pitcher Kenta Maeda has been one of the more disappointing pitchers in the MLB this season. In three road starts this season, Maeda has an ERA north of 7. His WHIP has gotten worse every season of his career and the pace of his decline has quickened. His winning record this season is pretty phony, and is likely overrated in the market. The Dodgers have allowed 5 or more runs in all but 1 of his starts this season, and he has yet to make it out of the 7th inning in any of his 5 starts.

Jeff Samardzija has a 4.14 career ERA and a 1.255 WHIP, leading me to believe that his solid 2019 so far has been a bit of an aberration. In 2018 Samardzija had an astronomical whip of 1.634.

Even in a traditional pitchers park, I feel that this is a back and forth game with a lot of different pitchers needed to get the 54 outs.

  
Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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