MLB Betting Picks with Lines & Odds 5/1/19

Saturdays Results: 2-1
All-time Results: 7-5-1, +1.8 Units

Cincinnati Reds +175 @ New York Mets
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets Over 6.5 (-120)

Fading Jacob “Best Pitcher in baseball” deGrom again, as I think his elbow injury and poor start have not properly discounted his value in the market.  We see all the time pitchers go from the elite of the elite to just pretty good from one season to the next.  Whereas some pitchers will more quickly be de-lionized, deGrom’s amazing mane and big market appeal will help him hold onto his premium valuation longer than most.  I mean look at that hair.

Yesterday, I searched in twitter for the phrase “best pitcher in baseball” and the first ten posts in my feed that mentioned a single pitcher mentioned Jacob deGrom. Notably, all of those posts were from April 4th or earlier. deGrom had one of the best seasons in recent memory last year and was the rightful Cy Young winner even for a non-playoff team. But I’m not sure he’s Prime Pedro right now.  Two seasons ago, deGRom had a 3.5 ERA.  Solid, but not indicative of a pitcher that should be -185 on a .500 team, or one that should necessarily keep a game under 6.5 half runs.

This year deGrom has a near 5 ERA and has been trending downward since sustaining an elbow injury in mid April.

On the other side, DeSclafani doesn’t seem like a notable pitcher in anyway. Had a good start last game but has a 5.02 FIP for the season.

Rookie Peter Alonso has been one of the best batters in the league against left handed pitching this season, I like that we have a right handed starter here for the Reds chances.

Runs are up this year overall in the MLB to almost 4.4 per game league wide. If deGRom is not the ace he was last year – I’m loving both these bets. If he does return to form, the Reds still have a fair shot to at least do some damage against the Mets bullpen as they did in a late rally yesterday to send the game into extra innings.

San Francisco Giants +1.5 -140 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

We have 3X World Champion Madison Bumgardner as an underog at home and I’m taking it.  Although the MadBum isn’t having a great start to the season, I like him to round into form here at home.

We’re fading the big market Dodgers after their 10-3 demolition of the Giants last night.

Cody Bellinger has been somewhat human vs. LHP, with a career OPS of .814.

Los Angeles Left-Hander, Hyun-Jin Ryu has had a stellar start to the season overall, but has been somewhat less effective since returning from a groin injury over his last two starts.  Historically, he also hasn’t been the same pitcher on the road. This year the Dodgers are a perfect 3-0 in Ryu starts at Dodgers Stadium, and 0-2 when he starts on the road. Over the last two seasons, the Dodgers are 10-2 in Ryu starts at home and 3-5 in Ryu starts on the road

  
Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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