MLB Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 5/7/19

Friday’s Results: 0-3
All-time Results: 11-10-1, +1.08 Units

San Diego Padres vs. v New York Mets Under 7.5 – 1 Unit

Thor is back and decapitating intergalactic tyrants and what not. Last outing, Noah “Thor” Syndergaard became the first pitcher in 36 years to win a game by throwing a complete-game shut-out and drive in the only run of the game with a solo-homer. Pretty sure that qualifies as a slump-ender. Even though he still has an ERA north of 5 in this young season, I think it is more likely we see the Syndergaard of old against a porous Padres lineup.  San Diego is only batting .226 as a team, good for 26th in the MLB.

On the other side, Cal Quantrill will have face a Mets line up that is batting .243 as a team and .242 against Right-Handed Pitching. Rookie sensation Peter Alonso is doing most of his damage against left-handers, and there’s not much more to write home about in this Mets Order.

St. Louis Cardinals +100 vs. Philadelphia Phillies – 1 Unit
St. Louis Cardinals by 4+ Runs +440 (FanDuel) – 1 Unit

Philadelphia starter, Aaron Nola sports a 2-0 record, despite the fact that he has not pitched well in almost any game this season while going against poor to very poor lineups. In seven starts so far in 2019, Nola he has an average line of 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6.2 H & 2.3 BB.

Pretty average to poor numbers overall. What makes them worse is that he has yet to face a top 10 offenses in terms of runs per game. In fact, only once has he gone against even a top 15 offense, opening day against the Braves. Nola has been fortunate to face off against the Mets, Tigers and Marlins during some of their worst stretches of the season. And he still didn’t look great, earning a 5.06 ERA.

The Cardinals are 2nd in the MLB in terms of batting average. They will be by far the best lineup Nola has faced.

St. Louis has the 6th best OPS against RHP in the MLB so far this season, and have only been getting better recently. Look for them to tee off.

Detroit Tigers +130 vs. Los Angeles Angels – 1 Unit

Detroit starter, Daniel Norris is coming into his own after a rough 2018. After overachieving in a reliever role to begin his sophomore season, Norris is now 1-0 in 3 starts in 2019 and has given up 1 run or less in 2 of them.

Griffin Canning will get the start for the Angels and he has looked vulnerable. In his only start so far this year he only lasted 4 innings and gave up 3 earned runs including a home run.

Los Angeles is 2-9 SU vs. Left Handed Starters so far in 2019.

Milwaukee Brewers -110 vs. Washington Nationals – 1 Unit

I faded Freddy Peralata in his first start coming of an injury to great success, as the Rockies knocked him out of the game in the first couple innings. Now that he has had the opportunity to shake off the rust, I’m betting that he is not as bad as his astronomical ERA would indicate.

The Nationals are still missing their best bat in Anthony Rendon.

The Brew Crew, conversely, have their star bat back action. Christian Yelich, who was battling back problems, returned over the weekend and already has posted another home run to his total. He might be in the sweet spot at the moment – where he is both well rested and fully recovered from his injury.

Stephen Strasburg finally looked worthy of his 38 million salary his last start, but I don’t see him lasting long enough or getting the run support he’ll need to earn a victory for the Nats tonight.

  
Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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