MLB Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 5/9/19

Tuesday’s Results: 1-3
All-time Results: 12-13-1, -1.92 Units

Cincinatti Reds +1.5 @ Oakland Athletics (-155) – 1 Unit

The Reds are 15-22 in a good division & the Athletics are 17-21 in a poor division. Seems like two pretty even teams separated only by homefield, which is probably least important in baseball of all the major sports. (Face it Canada, Hockey doesn’t count.)

The Athletics are coming off an exhilarating walk off hit, while the Reds will be hungry to avoid the sweep. Their past 2 wins (by 3 runs combined) have obscured how poor the A’s have been recently. While technically they are on a two game winning streak, really they are a few bounces away from being on a nasty 1-11 stretch.

The A’s bullpen needed 6 relievers to assure win yesterday and will have less in the tank for this tilt.

Reds starter Tanner Roark has been improving, allowing 2 or fewer runs in 4 of his past 5 starts and picking up a win and a quality start in his last outing Saturday. His FIP (3.6) is significantly lower than his ERA (3.9) suggesting he’s been somewhat unlucky so far this season.

I like Roark to perform well – and possibly Reds’ sluggers Joey Votto and Yasiel Puig to breakout of their recent slumps.

Seattle Mariners @ NY Yankees OVER 9.5 (+100)
Double: Yankees-1.5/OVER 9.5 +300 (FanDuel).

Don’t trust either starting pitcher in this one, as both have losing records and poor recent outings. Mariners starter Mike Leake has a 4.68 FIP and has been giving up home runs at an alarming rate. J.A. Happ has a 5.57 FIP so far this season, suggesting his 4.9 ERA is actually worse than it looks.

The Mariners have the best road record in the MLB, 13-8. Much of their success has had to do with their surprisingly potent bats, who love playing in home-run friendly Yankee stadium. After breaking out last game with 14 runs, Mariners such as Edwin Encarnacion and Ryon Healy will be chomping at the bit to keep pouring it on.

The Yankees to their credit have shown resilience this year, scoring 4.8 runs per game after a loss so far this season. I think the Marines are solid – but a little fortunate to have the record that they do and are likely to regress. I like the Yankees to exact some revenge today on a breezy May day in the Bronx.

  
Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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