MLB Daily Pennsylvania Pitch 7/29/19: FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Odds & Analysis
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It was a 2-2 night, as the Steven Matz strikeout prop hit, and the Mets grabbed a win. Offense fell well short in Cincinnati, and the same went for Milwaukee against Chicago. Overall the Saturday article moves us to 20-14. Tonight has seven games on tap, and Coors is in the mix as well. Vegas is expecting offense tonight with a lot of high totals.
Los Angeles Angels Over 6 Team Total
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +100
The Angels have a team total on par with the teams in Coors tonight. You might be asking why, but then see Jordan Zimmermann on the mound for Detroit. Zimmermann has allowed, 4, 6, 7, and 7 runs in his last four starts. His ERA is now over seven on the season, and the Detroit bullpen has the 26th ranked ERA (5.03). Los Angeles’ offense has been rolling, averaging 5.1 runs per game on the year, ranking 9th in baseball. The Angels are also averaging 5.4 runs per game at home. This park has been more neutral over the last year, and the lefty bats now have better home run odds with the wall drop out in right field. With an implied total of 6.2, the Angels offense is in one of the best spots on the night. FanDuel has placed it at a six team total, where you can find other sportsbooks at 5.5. I’ll take the plus money here.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds -1.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -108
Jordan Lyles has been pitching some of his worst baseball of late. Great American Ballpark is a top five hitter’s park, and the over is 5-4-1 in the last ten between these two teams in Cincinnati. Lyles has allowed 13 ERA over his last two starts, failing to pitch past the second in two of those. The current Reds roster has a .433 wOBA off Lyles, and given his struggles to left-handed hitters, this is a concerning lineup to face. He has allowed a 2.01 HR/9 to lefties, and even a 1.59 HR/9 to right-handers. Cincinnati’s projected lineup has five left-handed hitters in there, all with solid power. Sonny Gray has pitched rather well this year, which was surprising after the last few seasons. He has tamed the Pirates in three starts this season, allowing three earned runs total. The Reds are 2-1 in those starts. With the Reds in a great spot offensively, and Gray on the mound, I like the spread for Cincy in this spot.
Patrick Corbin Under 7.5 K’s
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -128
Patrick Corbin takes on one of the least strikeout prone teams in baseball. The Atlanta Braves average just 8.8 strikeouts a game as a team, and have some solid bats against left-handed pitching. Corbin needs eight strikeouts in this spot, which he generally finds himself around per start. His last three starts against Atlanta, he has generated, 3, 9, and 5 strikeouts. The under would be 2-1. Corbin’s 28% strikeout rate in 2019 is rather high, but the Braves come in with a 74% contact rate in their projected lineup, and also have decent numbers against the slider. When Corbin is on, the strikeouts can pile up, but strikeout props against the Braves generally hit the under, especially when they are set this high.
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