MLB Daily Pennsylvania Pitch 7/30/19: FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Odds & Analysis
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Looking back at last night, the Angels failed to hit their total and Patrick Corbin edged out the over on his strikeout prop. The lone win was the Reds covering the spread, which brings us to 21-16. There is a full slate of games tonight, with plenty of options. Philadelphia are home favorites against the Giants, while the Pirates are road dogs against the Reds.
San Francisco Giants @ Philadelphia Phillies Over 10.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -118
While Tyler Beede has pitched better over the last month, this is still a pitching matchup that indicates a strong bet for an over. Drew Smyly on the other side even gives the Giants offense some life. Weather points to strong offense, as the temperature is up over 90 with the wind blowing out. Citizens Bank is already a solid ballpark for hitters. The over is 6-4 in the last ten meetings in Philly between these two teams, and both teams have been solid over bets on the year. The over is 6-1 in the last seven games at home for the Phillies. Beede has pitched better, but still has a 4.96 xFIP and 4.85 ERA on the season. Smyly being listed as a starter had my eyes light up. He has a 5.95 xFIP this season and 7.69 ERA. Allowing 2.98 HR/9 is not an appealing stat for him, and he also has a 13% walk rate.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Under 9.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -110
Hitting conditions are above average at Fenway Park, but I am still taking the under. The under is 8-2 over the last ten games here, and 7-3 no matter the location. Tampa Bay has their best arm on the hill, and can bring in a top ten bullpen behind him. Boston has their best arm going, as David Price takes the hill. However, Boston doesn’t quite have the same bullpen. With Price matching up against Charlie Morton, runs should be pretty scarce. The under is 31-21-2 in road games for the Rays this season. Boston’s over numbers are high, but that is to be expected with this offense. Tampa Bay is also a bottom ten offense against left-handed pitching, striking out 26.5% of the time. Price has held the Rays to under two runs in each start but his last. His strikeout totals are, 8, 10, 7, and 10 this season. He has a strikeout prop of 6.5, with +100 odds on the over. I will take the over on this one.
Jake Odorizzi Over 5.5 K’s
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -128
Jake Odorizzi is sitting with the highest k-rate in his carer (25.5%), and has his lowest FIP since 2015. The Twins head on the road to take on the Marlins, where Odorizzi will get a bump facing the pitcher in an NL ballpark. The Marlins projected lineup has a collective strikeout rate of 23.2% on the year against right-handed pitching. They are also going to bring just one lefty to the table, bumping up Odorizzi’s potential. I am buying into six strikeouts or more for Odorizzi against a hapless Marlins offense. These are strong strikeout odds for an arm that has improved his strikeout potential in 2019.
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