MLB Daily Pennsylvania Pitch 8/21/19: FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Odds & Analysis
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Alright, we got back in the groove last night. The Phillies were +100 dogs and winners in Fenway. The Dodgers covered the alternate run line at +108. The White Sox and Twins was an easy over at +100. This brings us to a 57-38-1 record. Tonight we have another full slate of games, and some very good pitching on the hill. Patrick Corbin, Justin Verlander, and Walker Buehler are all on the bump.
Patrick Corbin Over 6.5 Strikeouts
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +120
I was a bit surprised to see Patrick Corbin’s strikeout prop at 6.5. Before clicking in, I was thinking 7.5. Also to get plus money on it was an even bigger surprise. He has hit this prop in eight of the last ten starts. Corbin doesn’t see the Pirates often, but had an 11 strikeout performance against them earlier this season. Corbin has struggled on the road a bit, but in the second half he has been strong. He has a 29.5% strikeout rate in the second half. The Pirates overall as a team have a 22.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. The projected lineup tonight has a 20.5% strikeout rate against right-handers, and five bats over a 20% strikeout rate. This doesn’t include the pitcher, and a lot of the contact rates against sliders are below 70%. Corbin should rack up strikeouts in this spot.
Chicago Cubs -1.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -124
The wind isn’t blowing out like last night, but the Cubs are big favorites at home. I will grab the run line in this spot for better value, as this is a mismatch. Yu Darvish is on the hill, and is a hefty favorite overall. The Giants have a 3.5 implied total, while the Cubs are at 5.6. Darvish should be able to tame this Giants offense, which isn’t something to worry about. The Cubs are 34-27 ATS at home this season, and overall have dominated at home with a 42-19 record. They have won six of their last seven games at home versus the Giants. With a mismatch in offenses and the starting arms, grab the Cubs.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox Over 12
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -104
Drew Smyly and Rick Porcello stands out as potential offensive explosion for these two teams. The Red Sox are averaging 5.8 runs per game this season, and the Phillies is a mediocre 4.7. The over has hit in the last three starts for Smyly, and it is 2-1 in the last three starts. Overall at Fenway the over is 40-26. With both arms sitting with over a 5.00 ERA, and the bullpens in terrible shape. Fenway should provide plenty of offense. Philadelphia and Boston both have had rocky bullpens this season, and short outings would give way to some below average relief arms. A 12 over is about right.
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