Patrick Corbin threw a great game, but failed to bring the strikeouts falling below his strikeout prop of 6.5. The Red Sox and Phillies offenses both were disappointingly quiet against a Porcello/Smyly matchup. The Cubs won, but failed to cover. This brings us to a 57-41-1 record. There are nine games on tap, with a few series wrapping up and a few new ones to begin. There are some strong pitching matchups, and the Astros are -462 favorites. That didn’t stop the Tigers from winning last night when they were even higher favorites. Insert eye emoji.
Atlanta Braves -1.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -138
The Braves are a big home favorite against the Marlins, sitting at -265. They have an implied total of six, and the Marlins sit at 3.6. We will talk about Mike Soroka down below, but this is a pitching mismatch. The Braves are 38-27 at home this season, and 34-21 against the division. Atlanta is 8-2 in their last ten games at home against Miami, and have already taken the first two of this series. There is a big discrepancy within the offenses, and Atlanta is averaging 5.4 runs per game this season. Miami sits at a cool 3.7. The Braves are 7-3 in their last ten games, and 6-4 ATS in that span. They should keep it rolling tonight.
Chicago White Sox Over 5 Runs
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -106
The White Sox are a boom or bust offense, but have potential to go off in this matchup. They have averaged 4.8 runs per game int he last ten meetings with the Rangers, and the over has been favorable for the White Sox of late. Ariel Jurado has a 4.89 xFIP this season and 5.38 ERA. He is a low strikeout arm who doesn’t miss many bats, and home runs have been an issue. In the second half he has allowed a 1.93 HR/9, and the walk rate has jumped 3% as well. His second half ERA sits at 7.71. While he isn’t pitching in Texas, he is facing off against an offense with some power bats in a friendly hitters park. Jurado is allowing a 50% hard-contact rate away from home this season.
Mike Soroka Over 5.5 Strikeouts
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -112
Mike Soroka has notched exactly six strikeouts in each of his last three starts against Miami, so no real surprise to see his strikeout prop set at 5.5. He isn’t a huge strikeout arm, sitting at 20% this season, but has a good changeup and slider that can get guys to miss. The Marlins lineup is one to attack, as they have a collective .294 wOBA and .127 ISO in their projected lineup. That combined strikeout rate is at 24.5%. They have three hitters above a 30% strikeout rate, and six over a 20% strikeout rate. This also doesn’t include the pitcher, so this is an enticing spot for the young right-hander.
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