It was a tilting night for the Braves, who failed to cover the spread, and Mike Soroka fell one strikeout short of his prop despite going seven strong innings. The White Sox team total did hit the over. This brings us to a 58-43-1 record. There are nine games on tap, with a few series wrapping up and a few new ones to begin. There are some strong pitching matchups, and the Astros are -462 favorites. That didn’t stop the Tigers from winning last night when they were even higher favorites. Insert eye emoji.
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -120
The Cardinals are heavy money line favorites, but we get a decent value on the run line. I am backing Jack Flaherty, who has been lights out in the second half. He has over a 30% strikeout rate since the break, and has allowed one earned run over the last three games. The Cardinals are 32-29 ATS at home this season, and 67-59 in general. They are a better home team overall with a 37-24 record, while the Rockies are 25-41 on the road. I expect Flaherty to shut down this team, and the Cardinals to jump on Peter Lambert, who has allowed 15 ER over his last three starts. The Cardinals have dominated Colorado at home, with a 9-1 record in their last ten. They are also 7-1 in the last eight home games.
Minnesota Twins -2.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -106
Minnesota is 7-3 in the last ten home games against Detroit, and are heavy favorites again tonight. So heavy that it is not optimal to even take the -1.5. Detroit has given bettors trouble of late, especially in that last Houston series. The Twins have been terrific at home going 37-28, and are averaging six runs per game in the last ten games against Detroit. The Tigers have averaged just 3.7. Jose Berrios is 2-1 against the Tigers in the last three starts, but two of those date back to last season. Overall this is a big pitching matchup difference. VerHagen is making a start, and has over a six ERA this season. Detroit has only won four games in the last 16 against the Twins. Minnesota have a 27-20 ATS against the division.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Seattle Mariners Over 9.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -106
Justus Sheffield is making a start tonight, and he is a former first round pick back in 2014. Overall he has struggled with walks in his career, and that issue poses a threat again tonight. His minor league strikeout numbers have been all over the map and the same goes for home runs. There are some right-handed bats that could go off for Toronto. Sheffield is also relying heavily on a fastball with not much usage outside of his slider. There are a lot of young bats in this lineup, but have shown the ability to hit southpaws already. On the flip side, Trent Thornton has a 5.18 xFIP and has struggled against both sides of the plate. He has allowed more power to left-handed hitters, allowing a .217 ISO this season. There are seven left-handed bats in the lineup tonight, bringing a mixture of speed and power.
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