Coming off a 2-1 night we head into the weekend with a 60-44-1 record as a whole. The Mariners and Blue Jays hit the over of 9.5 at -106, while the Cardinals easily took care of business covering the spread at -120. Minnesota failed to win, as the Tigers continue to wreck Vegas over the last few games. Only a couple of day games so we have a whole slate to choose from tonight
Chicago White Sox -1.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +144
Ivan Nova has relied upon some good luck, so this isn’t necessarily backing him as a play. His low strikeout rate is still there, and a 5.15 xFIP follows. His ERA will likely go up at some point, but not sure it happens tonight against the Rangers. Texas is a team that falls off on the road offensively, ranking dead last in the league. These splits are very similar to Colorado. Because at home, Texas have a top ten offense. That has shown in their record as they are a 25-40 team on the road this season. The White Sox are a better home team, and also have a 24-18 record against left-handed pitching this season. The Rangers continue their downward season with a 5-13 record in the last 18 games. Chicago has had a good track record against this Texas squad, especially at home. I like the White Sox offense to pounce on Kolby Allard and put up some runs.
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets Under 8
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -106
Between these two teams we generally don’t get a high total, as pitching usually is on the plus side. The under is 4-4-2 in the last ten meetings between these two teams, when they play in Citi Field, the under is 6-3-1. Zack Wheeler has been pitching well with a 3.26 ERA in the second half, and allowing just two home runs so far. That was an issue at times in the first half. Max Fried is also a reliable southpaw who tends to just limit damage before passing it on to an Atlanta bullpen that has been through its ups and downs. Both bullpens could be the downside here, but overall I see these names going deep into the game. The under is 2-1 in the last three starts with Wheeler on the mound versus Atlanta, and that same record holds for Fried against New York.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros Over 10
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -106
Two lefties are on the mound tonight in Houston, and two offenses that have plenty of right-handed bats to do damage. This is more about Houston’s offense, as their projected lineup has a .407 wOBA and .262 ISO off southpaws this season. They also don’t have high strikeout rates. Dillon Peters has allowed a .379 wOBA to right-handed hitters and has a 4.82 xFIP. Wade Miley tends to limit damage, but is still good to allow a few earned runs. The Angels have a few bats that hit left-handed pitching well. The Astros have averaged 7.3 runs per game in the last ten against Los Angeles, and the over has been favorable in the Angels last 12 games, hitting nine times.
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