Going back to look at Saturday it was an 0-3 night as the Mets and Braves hit the over, and Chicago failed to cover at home against Texas. The Angels and Astros fell just short of the over. This leads us to a 60-47-1 record as a whole. Most of tonight’s games are in larger pitching parks, and outside of the Yankees on the road in Seattle, there are not big favorites. There is also some heavy weather in KC that makes that game look iffy.
St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +120
The Cardinals are in a good spot tonight, going up against the Brewers as slight dogs. Gio Gonzalez has been struggling more in the second half, as ERA estimators suggested that he would. The Cardinals will head on the road where they go to being an average team, but are on a nice little tear while the Brewers have started to hit a wall. Both arms have had their ups and downs this season, but I prefer backing Wainwright over Gio in this spot. The Cardinals offense is back to full strength and against left-handed pitching they have a lot of right-handed pop that can do some damage.
Atlanta Braves @ Colorado Rockies Over 13.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -106
Usually I avoid the afternoon games, but grab the over here. Julio Teheran steps into Coors and has been very lucky this season. It also helps that he gets to face the Marlins seemingly every week. He has a 5.20 xFIP and 3.53 ERA. His HR/FB is down a few percentage points from the last few seasons as he has usually been someone to allow the long ball. Going into Coors, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get crushed. On the other side of this game, Tim Melville is making a start, and the Braves offense is back to full strength. Melville has a career 7.89 ERA and 6.49 xFIP. This projected Atlanta offense has a .369 wOBA and .221 ISO off right-handed pitching.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres Under 8.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -104
The under is 6-4 in the last ten games at Petco Park between these two teams. While I expect the Dodgers to put up a few runs against Eric Lauer, he has been batter off at home with a 3.10 ERA compared to a 5.93 ERA on the road. He has allowed no more than three earned runs in each of his last four starts, with one of those coming on the road against LA. Dustin May is a pitch to contact arm who doesn’t allow walks either. He has a 3.99 xFIP in three starts this season, and his relief appearance on the 18th blew up his ERA. May has allowed five earned runs total in three starts, and should be able to get through a heavy right-handed Padres lineup. The under is 7-3 in the last ten meetings no matter the location.
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