MLB Daily Pennsylvania Pitch 8/5/19: FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Odds & Analysis
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Friday’s article was a 3-0 night, as Walker Buehler and Aaron Nola both hit the over on their strikeout props. The Twins covered the spread at home. The total record is now 30-23. Monday kicks us off with 13 games to wager on, and the Phillies are on the road out in the desert against Arizona. The Pirates welcome Milwaukee, but will also face off against Jordan Lyles who was traded to them last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox Over 11.5
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -102
The over is 6-4 in the last ten meetings between these two teams at Fenway Park. This is however the first meeting here of 2019. Mike Montgomery is on the hill tonight, and has allowed 27 ER in 38.1 innings so far this season. He has also allowed eight home runs. The offense hasn’t been the problem for the Red Sox this year, as it has been the pitching. Rick Porcello is one of those names serving them up. He has over a 5.00 ERA at home this season, and a 7.54 ERA in the second half. The total has gone over in each of the last three starts for Porcello and it is 2-1 for Montgomery. Over the last ten meetings regardless of location, the over is 7-3. Fenway Park has seen a lot of overs at 36-20. It is a good spot for the over at a really good price as well.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: PIT +134
Public money is backing the Brewers tonight, at about a 60-40 clip. There is no doubt who the better team is, and that is Milwaukee. However, they are a poor road team going 24-32 on the road this season. Both teams come into tonight scuffling, and Jordan Lyles is on the hill. He is pitching for Milwaukee, and he was struggling before the trade. Lyles has had issues with left-handed hitters, allowing a .412 wOBA and .266 ISO this season. That concerns me going up against the Pirates lineup of five left-handed hitters. Pittsburgh has been a better home offense, averaging five runs per game compared to 4.3 on the road. Pirates are slight dogs in this one, and I like the matchup against an old teammate. With Milwaukee’s struggles on the road this is where we can get an edge.
Charlie Morton Over 7.5 Strikeouts
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -134
Charlie Morton is in a great spot, and has been one of the best strikeout arms in baseball this season. He has a 30% strikeout rate on the year, and will take on a Blue Jays lineup that has seven bats with over a 20% strikeout rate against right-handers. Their projected lineup collectively has a 24.6% strikeout rate against righties. Morton has a 27% whiff rate on his fastball, and a 35% whiff rate on his cutter. The curve is the money pitch, sitting with a 41% whiff rate. Not a lot of good contact bats within this lineup. He had three double-digit strikeout starts in the month of July, and his strikeout rate jumps 10% at home.
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