MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks Pennsylvania: Lines & Odds – 8/14/19

Tuesday’s Results: 2-1
All Time Results: 74-79-2, -3.28 Units

Philadelphia Phillies (-116) vs. Chicago Cubs – 1 Unit

Aaron Nola + Cubs on the Road (Worst road team in National League) = Auto-play.

Last week ESPN published an article about the Cubs road woes, and all Cubs quoted talked about redoubling their efforts to end this trend. They were very much aware of the problem.   That day, they went out and put up 12 on the Reds for their first road win in August. Had a switch been flipped?

Not exactly, the Cubs lost the series with the Reds and started out this series against the Phillies with a lost. Taking out that one big win the day the ESPN story came out, the Cubs have scored just 14 runs in their last 7 road games.

Tough for anybody to get a win against Phillies starter, Aaron Nola right now. Since May 1st, the Phillies are 14-5 when Nola starts, including winning 7 of 9.  Nola (10-3, 3.67 ERA) has lasted through the 5th inning in 20 of his last 22 starts, protecting one of the thinner bullpens of teams that are in playoff contention.

The Cubs starter, Kyle Hendricks, like the rest of this Cubs team, has had a good season overall, great at home and awful on the road. Hendricks (8-9, 3.48 ERA) has a road ERA more than double his home ERA (1.98 compared to 5.16). Opposing batters hit over .300 against him away from The Friendly Confines.

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Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Over 13 (-106) – 1 Unit

From July 11 2018 to June 20th of this year, the Rockies won 19 of 23 games against these Diamondbacks. Since that run, the Diamondbacks have taken 5 in a row in the match-up. So, so much for trends.

I think if we look past the noise, we see too pretty even teams, very familiar with one another. Match-ups are key in this rivalry as there is no hiding tendencies with such a familiar foe.

Looking into the match-ups, both of these pitchers look like they’re in trouble. All of the Rockies best hitters have destroyed Diamondbacks starter, Robbie Ray. Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond, & Daniel Murphy all have an OPS above 1.100 against Robbie Ray over the past year. Combined, this quintet has 52 hits and 25 extra base hits against Ray in their last 130 combined At-Bats.

Both starting pitchers, show up on Rotowires “Cold Pitcher Matchup”. Robbie Ray has allowed an aggregate 1.161 OPS against the Rockies over the past year. That’s the kind of OPS one would expect if a team trotted out 9 Barry Bonds against an average pitcher. Kyle Freeland has been only slightly better, allowing an .895 aggregate OPS to the Diamondbacks over the past year.  That’s like an average pitcher going against 9 All-Stars.

There is a slight wind blowing in today at Coors field, but its pretty negligible at only 5 MPH. It’s a hot, dry day in Colorado and the ball will be flying out early and often.

Miami Marlins Team Total Under 2.5 (-106) vs. LA Dodgers – 1 Unit

Don’t look now but Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw is looking like that guy again. Bouncing back from a disappointing postseason in 2018, Kershaw (11-2, 2.77 ERA) would be in the Cy Young conversation were it not for his teammate Hyun-Jin Ryu dominating.

Kershaw held the Marlins scoreless in 6 innings of work earlier this year. For his career, Kershaw has a 2.55 ERA in 77 innings against the Marlins, which shrinks to a 1.85 ERA when pitching in Marlins park. Those numbers have generally come against a lot better Marlins‘ lineups than this current iteration – one of the worst in their history.

Miami has the worst offenses in baseball, scoring only 3.6 runs per game. Recently, they have gone into player development mode giving starting spots to players like 23-year old Isan Diaz, whose batting .194 in major league games. Diaz only batted .232 last year in AAA.

Umpire for the game, Mike Estabrook, slightly tends to favor lower scoring games. The Under is 14-10 on the season with Estabrook behind the plate.

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Post
Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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