MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks Pennsylvania: Lines & Odds – 8/15/19
Wednesday’s Results: 2-0-1
All Time Results: 76-79-3, -1.42 Units
Contents
Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-116) vs. Texas Rangers – 1 Unit
The Twins are currently on pace to shatter the single season home run record for a team, set by last year’s Yankees. New York last year posted around 1.6 runs per game – these Twins are closer to two dingers per.
The Twins take all that power to scalding Arlington Texas to face a team that’s lost 6 of 8, and have scored only 2.5 runs per game over that span. The Rangers are only 2-5 this season when returning from a road trip of any length. After the Rangers gallivanted from Cleveland, to Milwaukee than up to Toronto, before flying home this morning – I like the Twins to be a little more game ready for the start of this contest.
Rangers will start Pedro Payano, whose metrics make him look less steady than his 3.86 ERA would indicate. Namely his 5.21 FIP is a better indication of his true ability. Payano is also giving up a ton of walks, which he has been fortunate not to have hurt him so severely quite yet. The casual baseball fan sees 3.86 and says ‘hey, Payano’s been pretty good’. A more detailed look indicates ‘Payano’s has been less than terrible, but not good at all’. That delta between first blush and a deeper look presents value here. Especially given the rookie has only pitched 18 innings in the majors, its difficult for the market to get an accurate read on him and the more data we use to make our determination the better.
The Twins also will start a rookie in Devin Smeltzer. Smeltzer (1-2. 3.66 ERA) has a similar ERA to Payano, but has him beat in almost every other metric. Particularly notable: Smeltzer boasts a 1.094 WHIP (All-Star level) while Payano has a 1.714 WHIP (worse than replacement level). At some point, having a lot more men on base will show up in the runs department.
Twins have a starting pitching advantage and are just the way better team. They add to their record home run tally and roll to an easy win.
Oakland A’s Team Total Under 4.5 (-110) vs. Houston Astros – 1 Unit
The A’s return home after 8 straight games on the road. Oakland has played 5 home games this year the day after concluding a 7+ game road trip. In those games, the A’s are 2-3 (for -1.6 units), average 2.8 runs per game. Dating back to last season, the A’s have won just 4 of 10 games in this scenario, scoring only 3.1 runs per game. They’ve scored more than 3 runs when returning from a long road trip just twice over the past 10 occasions.
Looked long at hard at taking the Astros to win – but couldn’t get past Mike Fiers. Fiers has been serious, currently working on 19 straight starts giving up 3 or less earned runs.
The Astros start Aaron Sanchez, notably not one of their Cerberus-esq, three headed monster aces. Still, Sanchez has been just as miserly as his more famous teammates since joining the Astros. Sanchez has given up only 1 run through 11 innings in a Houston uniform. In one career start in the Oakland Coliseum, Sanchez only gave up a solitary run.
Once Sanchez is retired, the Astros have the 5th best bullpen in the ERA to finish off the job.
Chicago White Sox +144 @ LA Angels – 1 Unit
The White Sox finally broke out of their offensive malaise in the tail end of their series against the Astros, and will look to continue crushing the ball in LA.
Chicago has won 4 of its last 6 road games in which its been a +140 or greater underdog. In those games, Chicago averages 5.8 runs per game.
Meanwhile the Angels have hardly been able to stop anybody. As their playoffs dreams have begun to fade away, their pitching acumen has likewise disappeared. LAA has given up 10+ runs in 3 of their last 6 games, and 6+ runs in 8 of their last 11 games.
The Angels will hand the ball to Andrew Heaney to try and stop the bleeding. Heaney (1-3, 4.89 ERA) rarely lasts long into the game, making it out of the 4th inning just twice in his past three starts. He’s pitched through the 6th inning just twice in 10 starts for the season. More than likely the White Sox will have the chance to tee off against an Angels bullpen that has been severely stretched in recent weeks.
White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez has not had a great season but has been very effective on the road over the past 2 months. Lopez (7-9, 5.16 ERA) has 3-0 record and a 3.02 ERA over his past 6 road starts, dating back to June 9th.
Pennsylvania Sports Betting Kit
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