MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks Pennsylvania: Lines & Odds – 8/2/19
Thursday’s Results: 2-1
All Time Results: 62-71-2, -4.51 Units
Contents
Kansas City Royals +1.5 (+115) @ Minnesota Twins – 1 Unit
I originally intended this write up to validate a Twins -1.5 run-line bet. However, the salient data pointed me in the opposite direction.
The last game the Twins won they came out on top 7-4. Of their last 12 victories, 10 have come by by 2 runs or more (83%). For the season 54 of their 66 wins have been by 2 runs or more (82%).
Let’s oversimplify and assume these values are representative and walk through these odds to see if we have value on the Run Line.
The consensus line around Vegas is Minnesota -220 and KC +200. Therefore we can input a vig-less line would be +210/-210. These odds suggest at the implicit odds of a Twins are equal to 210/310 or 67.7%.
If the Twins win between 83% and 82% of their games by 2 or more runs and have a 67.7% to win this game, theoretically the Twins have a 56-56.5% of winning this game by 2 or more runs.
56%! Great, that’s a pro number! Well, not quite. We are paying -135 juice. So we should assume to win – if it is a good bet – at least 135/235 or 57% of the time.
So that’s it – the oddsmakers have the lines about right. Nothing to see here.
Maybe. A key caveat is that even though the Twins win 82% of their games by 2 or more runs, they theoretically should win by margin more often against a worse team than a better team.
So let’s narrow our sample to see their odds of a 2 run victory when they are a home favorite.
The free database I use goes back only maximum 30 games so I’ll use that as my sample.
First thing that jumps off the page is that the Twins are only 17-13 in their 30 as a home favorite. Further, 5 of their last 17 wins as a home favorite were only by 1 run. If the true odds of a victory being a 2-run victory are only 12/17 – we are in big trouble with Twins -1.5 ticket.
(Odds of a 2 run victory * Odds of a victory * Payout on a Win) – Original Investment = Return on Investment
((12/17)*(210/310)*(235/135))- = -17% ROI.
I thought I had a good bet with Twins -1.5, but the recent trends toss me off it like a raging bull.
The Twins recent record as a home favorite makes me question if they aren’t more of a road team with an explosive offensive rather a home juggernaut. I’ve flipped all the way around, taking the lowly Royals getting the +1.5.
If the line is right and recent trends continue the Royals should have a 32.3% to win and a 29.4% chance to cover if they don’t win. 29.4% of 67.7% is 19.9%. So they win or cover 32.3%+19.9% of time. That’s over 52%! Getting +115 on even a 50/50 proposition is a +7.5% ROI. Worth a shot here!
NY Mets -120 @ Pittsburgh Pirates – 1 Unit
The Mets started the season 17-31 on the road – one of the worst road teams in the league. But after a sweep of the White Sox in Chicago they now have won 8 of their last 11 on the road.
These pitchers faced off against one another just last week – so both we’ll be familiar to their respective opposition.
The Mets’ Matz has been better than the Pirates Trevor Williams recently. Coming off a complete game shutout of these Pirates, Matz has only allowed 4 earned runs in his last 20 innings. Conversely, Trevor Williams has given 16 earned over his last 4 starts and 23 innings.
Several players will be playing on appealed suspension for the Pirates tonight following their brawl with Cincy. Not sure if the distraction is a negative, but I hardly think that it could be positive in this match-up with a confident, New York team. If anything the Umps might hand the Pirates a few bad calls over the course of the night.
The Mets are rolling winners of 7 straight and 13 of 18 since the All Star Break. With a starting pitching edge here, I like them to keep the run going.
Texas Rangers -280 vs. Detroit Tigers – 1 Unit
Factoid came across my screen that compelled me. When the Detroit Tigers have lost 3 straight against an opponent – as they have against the Rangers coming into tonight’s game – they are 6-25 in the next game against them. When a team gets the upper hand on Detroit, they have been the model of the hapless punching bag.
Enter the consistency of Lance Lynn (13-6, 3.83 ERA) and I love our chances here.
Both the Rangers and the Tigers have awful bullpens (24th and 25th respectively) but I estimate the Tigers pen have a far greater chance of being exposed here.
Lynn has lasted 6+ innings in each of his last 17 starts. The Rangers are 11-6 when he starts over the span.
The Tigers counter with rookie, Tyler Alexander (0-1, 3.86 ERA) making his fourth start of his career. Tigers are 0-2 in his road starts, giving up 17 runs combined as a team in those games. Tyler failed to make it past the 5th inning mark in either.
It’s a big number – but lets scoop a couple fractions of a unit and keep rolling.
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