MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks Pennsylvania: Lines & Odds – 8/20/19
Monday’s Results: 2-1
All Time Results: 80-84-3, -1.93 Units
Contents
Philadelphia Phillies +100 @ Boston Red Sox – 1 Unit
It’s so odd to hear a team spin it as good news when their best pitcher goes down with an ambiguous elbow injury.
“Cloud over Red Sox clears a bit ahead of series vs. Phillies” reads the AP.
So let me get this straight. Dr. James Andrews of RG3 fame meets with your pitcher, shoots some “platelet-rich plasma” in his arm, says he can’t pitch for the rest of the season and needs to be re-evaluated in six weeks…and that means sunny days ahead?
I understand there were worse results in the realm of possibilities – regardless this isn’t good. Sale starts a 5 year, prohibitively expensive contract next year and his longevity is already a concern. He was having his worst year on record this season, and now it may be considerable amount of time before he even gets back to that level.
Some insiders have proposed that this injury raises the chances that the Red Sox will have to trade last year’s AL MVP, Mookie Bets in order to get another starter.
All of this occurs the moment Red Sox playoff aspirations have become unrealistic.
The Red Sox had been the most disappointing home team in the MLB anyway. How bummed is Fenway going to be today?
Oh, you’re worried about Chris Sale, the all time leader in strikeout rate? Don’t worry about him we got Brian Johnson! (Didn’t he win a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers?) No, that was Brad Johnson. But Brian does have a 1-1 record and 6.45 ERA!
BJ – as the Boston faithful call him – has made it past the 5th inning one time in 6 starts this season. Translation: he inspires no confidence in a crowd many of whom bought their tickets a few days ago hoping to see Chris Sale.
Starting on the mound for the Phillies, we have an Aaron Nola, who I’ll continue to ride with any chance I get. Philadelphia has won 8 of Nola’s last 10 starts. Over his last eleven, Nola has a 5-2 record with a 2.09 ERA. Not the man who want to see when your spirits are low.
Pittsburgh Pirates + 140 vs. Washington Nationals – 1 Unit
Washington Nationals Team Total U4.5 (-104) @ Pittsburgh Pirates – 1 Unit
In sports betting it is essential to consider that more than one thing can be true.
Yes, the Tampa Bay Rays swindled the Pittsburgh Pirates last year trading Chris Archer for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and more. Archer was a former All Star whose performance was fading from good to below average, along with the velocity of his fastball.
Tyler Glasnow is 5 years younger, has one half the ERA and makes a quarter of the money to boot. Just sending Archer for Glasnow would have been highway robbery – also nabbing a 24-year old All-Star outfielder in Austin Meadows makes it one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory in any sport.
Chris Archer had a 3.69 ERA over his 6 year career with the Rays. It’s a whisker under 5 in his time with the Pirates.
Not fun being on the other side of that. But don’t close the book on the kid from Raleigh, NC. Since eliminating his sinker entirely from his pitch selection, Archer has shown signs of outliving his Herschel Walker of baseball status. Quietly, he’s been kind of good.
Over his 10 starts since he last used the sinker, Archer has a 31.1% strikeout rate. Higher than his single season career high of 29.2%, set in his last All Star season in 2017. Over those 10 starts, he gave up more than 3 runs just twice. He had a 23% Home Run to Fly-Ball ratio before the change, compared to 15.8% in his ten starts after.
Archer has a 3.1 ERA in August, which would be his lowest in a full month since he posted a 2.3 ERA last May when he was still with the Rays.
Archer has a 2.00 career ERA in 3 starts against the Nationals, all of which were in DC. He could have even more success today at home, where he has historically been much better. For his career, Archer has an ERA 1 run less at home (3.4 vs. 4.4) and that differential has drastically increased this season (4.0 to 6.6).
My first year following baseball closely – I had a preconditioned first instinct to fade Archer in this spot. The Nationals have been trampling teams. But you know what they say – momentum is your next day’s starting pitcher. And I think at this moment in time, the Pirates have a guy severely underrated by the market.
Archer – that’s the guy that’s laughably bad right? That’s the former All-Star the Rays traded at the perfect like time like the Patriots dumping Richard Seymour or Randy Moss?
Yes, that’s him. But Archer is also an adaptable pitcher, that has improved drastically while changing his game mid-season. He is also one much better with a home crowd behind him.
The Pirates have lost Chris Archer’s last 7 starts, even as his pitching as improved. Before that they had gone 7-8 with him on a mound. Streaks are meant to be snapped and that’s what I think we get today. Pirates 3, Nationals 2.
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