MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks Pennsylvania: Lines & Odds – 8/26/19

Friday’s Results: 1-2
All Time Results: 88-89-3, +2.20 Units

San Diego Padres vs. LA Dodgers Under 9 (-120) – 1 Unit
San Diego Padres +124 vs. LA Dodgers  – 1 Unit

The Dodgers aren’t hitting – they’ve only scored 4 runs per game in their last 8 games. Half of their runs over that stretch came in one game against the Toronto Blue Jays. Take that 16-3 shellacking out, and they’ve only scored 2.2 runs per game in their other seven most recent outings.

Is this just noise or is there something fundamentally different about the team that leads the NL in runs per game?

padresMy instinct is that their cold spell is more than simple variance, but rather partially due to malaise. The Dodgers are taking a deep breath before the stretch run.

Hardly anyone thinks any differently about the 2017 Dodgers that won 104 games than they do about last years Dodgers who won 92. Both lost in the World Series.

The 2019 Dodgers are on pace to match or break the franchise record of 105 wins set by the 1953 Brooklyn Dodgers, lead by outfielders Duke Snider and Jackie Robinson. What’s the salient fact about that team? They lost in the world series to the New York Yankees.

On August 26th 2017, the Dodgers were 91-36. They lost 14 of their next 15 games. They might be going through a similar late August, Early September dip in play right now.

The Padres start, Eric Lauer who has been good but not great as a second year pitcher. Lauer (6-8, 4.47 ERA) has been great late in the season, however, and he has also been great against the Dodgers.

Lauer has a 4-0 record and 1.72 ERA in 6 starts vs. LA

Lauer has a 2-0, 2.43 ERA in 9 starts in August/September.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Team Total Under 4 (+102) – 1 Unit

The Pirates had scored 17 total runs in 9 games before finally breaking out over their past 2 games against the Reds, where they put up 24.

Looking back a little farther, we see a pattern of huge run totals followed by a series of duds. More than half of the teams runs over their last 23 games (102) have been scored in just 5 games (53).

piratesSo what do we get here – a blow up, similar to the 19 runs the Marlins scored on these Phillies over the weekend? Or a dud – like the 1 or less runs the Pirates have scored in 5 of their last 9 games, and 23 times on the season.

I find the latter a lot more likely, especially considering they’re going up against a quality left-handed starter. The Pirates have a paltry .659 OPS against left-handed pitching, the worst handiness split of any team in baseball.

Philadelphia starts veteran left-hander, Jason Vargas who has been above average this year with a 3.99 ERA. Vargas has allowed 2 or less runs in 3 of his 4 starts since being traded to Philly.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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