MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks Pennsylvania: Lines & Odds – 8/5/19
Friday’s Results: 1-2
All Time Results: 63-73-2, -5.95 Units
Contents
Tampa Rays -1.5 (-122) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
After gutting their team at the end of the trade deadline, the Blue Jays immediately ripped off 6 wins out of 7. Even dropping the final two games of their series with the Orioles, the Blue Jays have still enjoyed one of their best stretches of the season. I am skeptical their recent success is sustainable.
Perhaps it is not a coincidence that the Blue Jays started getting hot the moment they traded Marcus Stroman to the Mets. Given that Stroman and the trade garnered more publicity than the team had gotten all year, perhaps what we were witnessing was Bill Simmons classic “Ewing Theory” at work.
The Ewing Theory identifies a circumstance in which a star athlete that receives an inordinate amount of media attention on a bad or disappointing team suddenly leaves the team (either by injury or trade). The media and fans immediately write off the team, at which point the team (seemingly) inexplicably plays better than they had previously with the star player in uniform.
Examples of Ewing Theory: The 1999 Knicks make the NBA Finals despite losing Patrick Ewing for the entirety of the playoffs through injury. The 1999 Tennessee Volunteers won the National Championship the year after Peyton Manning left for the NFL. The 2000 Mariners post the best regular season ever the year after trading away Ken Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson.
While winning 6 of 9 is not making the NBA Finals, I do think we have just seen a mini-Ewing Theory at work. Without any pressure or expectations, the Blue Jays and their rising star Vlad Guerrero Jr. played above their heads the past week, riding the nobody-believes-in-us train and catching a few squads napping.
Now that they enter their 3rd series since the Marcus Stroman trade – and against much better competition this time – I look for the Blue Jays magic to wear off and for the reality of their limited roster to set in. They are a far less talented team than they were one month ago – and that team was one of the worst in the MLB.
Tampa Bay Rays starter, Charlie Morton (12-3, 2.78 ERA) has yet to put in a quality performance since the All Star Break. In 4 starts since the break, Morton has a a 5.01 ERA. His WHIP is up 20% and his strikeout rate is down 20% compared to his stats before the break.
Morton will be seek to reverse these trends and revert to his previous strong form. Whereas Morton might overlook an offense like the Blue Jays typically, his poor play recently assures us that he will focused on the task at hand.
The Blue Jays start rookie Jacob Waguespack (2-1, 4.80 ERA), a below average pitcher thus far in his young career. The Blue Jays have relied heavily on their below average bullpen as of late – and I like the Rays to get after each and every one of the potential Jays pitchers.
St. Louis Cardinals +144 @ Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have been so dominant at home that they catch a huge price as a favorite for their home games almost regardless of their starting pitcher.
Today the Dodgers start Tony Gonsolin tonight, who has pitched 8 career innings in the major leagues. Last week the Dodgers promoted Gonsolin from AAA after placing their Ace and Cy Young favorite Hyu-Jin Ryu on the 10-day injured list.
Gonsolin wasn’t exactly lighting it up in AAA before his promotion , sporting only a 1-4 record with a 4.95 ERA.
The Cardinals go with much more established Michael Wacha (6-4, 5.15 ERA) who hasn’t been great this season but has recently shown signs of improvement. The former All-Star has allowed 14 runs over his last 34 innings, for a solid 3.71 ERA since June 1st.
Even after dropping two games to the Athletics in Oakland, the Cardinals are 11-6 over their last 17 road games. They have won 6 of their last 10 as a road underdog.
Texas Rangers +142 @ Cleveland Indians
Like the Dodgers, the Cleveland Indians are huge favorites despite the fact they are starting a completely unproven pitcher in Aaron Civale (1-0, 0.00 ERA).
Cleveland’s Civale will be making his second start in the MLB today after blanking the Tigers over 6 innings during his debut in June. Unlike the Tigers and the AAA teams Civale has played recently, the Rangers sport a real lineup. The Rangers have two left handers in the top 20 in the MLB in Hard Hit %: RF, Nomar Mazara and DH Shin-Soo Choo. Both players will be eager to damage the pristine record of the 24-year old, rookie right-hander.
For the Rangers, we get an excellent starter in Mike Minor (9-6, 3.21 ERA). Minor struggled in July giving up 4+ runs in each of his last 4 starts. But if you looked past that blip, Minor has been steady and consistent. He has allowed 3 or less runs in 16 of his last 21 starts overall.
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