MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks Pennsylvania: Lines & Odds – 8/6/19

Monday’s Results: 1-2
All Time Results: 64-75-2, -6.55 Units

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates Over 10 (-106) – 2 Units

When Pirates are an underdog at home, the Over is 21-4-2 this season. The Over has hit in their last games when they Buccos are a home dog, and 10 of the last 11.

Potential rationale for this trend feels intuitive enough. The Pirates have a deep lineup that can battle with almost any staff.  The Pirates have seven regular starters with an above average OPS for their position.

brewersTheir pitchers, however, are not quite so plucky.  When the big favorites hits the Pirates hard – and they do – the eye-patch crew regularly battles back while the Total sails Over.

Pirates will start Steven Brault for the first time since he went on the injured list last month with a shoulder injury. Brault (3-1, 4.15 ERA) has been decent this season, but hasn’t eaten up many innings. He has only lasted past the 5th inning four times in his 9 starts this season and failed to make out of the 4th inning in either of his last two starts, both vs. this Brewers team. Especially with the team protecting his shoulder on his return from injury, Brault should not last long and the Brewers should get plenty of opportunities to expose the Pirates porous bullpen.

Similarly, Brewers starter, Chris Anderson (5-2, 3.73 ERA) has been solid in limited innings. Anderson has made through the 6th inning just twice in 17 starts this season, and only once in his last 10 outings.

The Pirates have the 23rd ranked bullpen and the Brewers aren’t much better at 19th. Both pens saw plenty of work last night. My feel is that both teams put up 4 and one team breaks away with a big inning late. I like the Over.

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Houston Astros -1.5 (-110) vs. Colorado Rockies -.5 Units

The Astros debut new Ace Zach Greinke as the Rockies come into town.

Greinke is no stranger to this scenario. Today will be the 6th debut for the 6X All-star, and the 2nd time he has debuted for a team in the middle of the season.

The last time Greinke debuted mid-season he went 7 innings and allowed two runs in a loss for the Angels in 2012. In his previous 5 debuts, Greinke allowed more than 2 runs just once, in 2011 when he got shelled as a Brewer.

astrosRockies pitcher German Marquez was excellent at home vs. the Dodgers last time out going 6 scoreless.  However, he was pulled from the game early due to muscle cramps.  I am skeptical he will be able to repeat his performance against equally potent Astros lineup – this time on the road.

The Astros are 10-2 in their last 12 meetings against the Rockies.  Colorado is 1-4 in their last 5 inter-league games.

Rockies have not been good when facing a team settling into a pitching groove. Colorado is just 3-13 in their last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The pitching rotation the Astros are settling into may be of epic proportions. We have a water Pokemon vs. a fire Pokemon here.  Rockies are a in tough place.  Astros roll.

Philadelphia Phillies +122 @ Arizona Diamondbacks – .5 Units

Arizona starts Mike Leake for the first time since acquiring the right-hander from Seattle. Like Marcus Stroman heading from the Blue Jays to the Mets, Leake goes from a non-contender to a fringe contender. The difference is that while the Mets playoff hopes have rekindled with their stellar month of July, the dream of another postseason may be dead in the desert. Fangraphs has the Diamondbacks chance of a post-season birth at only 7.8%. While I expect Stroman to surge now that he is suddenly in a competitive environment, the Diamondbacks have a near opposite vibe going with Leake coming in.

philliesThe biggest news story around the team the past few weeks has nothing to do with their up and down play. Henderson, Nevada of the Las Vegas Valley reportedly attempted to lure the Diamondbacks away from the city of Phoenix over the past year.  This news broke around the stadium minutes before the Diamondbacks shutout loss to the Nationals on 08/02.  The next day they lost again, this time by 11 runs. Not sure any of Diamondbacks faithful have taken to hunger strikes, a la Homer Simpsons’ battle with the Springfield Isotopes. Regardless, it’s an awkward situation with a perturbed fanbase frustrated with organization.

The Phillies well worn worries have been with the team all year. High expectations have come and mostly gone.  They remain a talented group, even if not a playoff team this year.

Phillies Jake Arrieta is still a pro. The Phillies are a solid 5-4 in Arrieta’s 9 road starts this season. In those games he has held the home team to 2 or less runs five times.

With the more talented team and an equally solid pitcher, I don’t think the home-field advantage seen here in the line is warranted. Take the Phillies.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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