MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 5/11/19

Thursday’s Results: 1-2
All-time Results: 13-15-1, -2.92 Units

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Milwaukee Brewers +106 @ Chicago Cubs – 1 Unit

The Milwaukee Brewers are the hottest team in baseball right now, winners of their last 7 of the trot.

Jesus Aguilar has once again arisen from a terrible beginning of the season to look again like a solid slugger going into the summer.  Since April 29th  Aguilar is batting .375 with 3 HRs. Talisman, Christian Yelich is back from injury and back to top form, looking to be the first repeat NL MVP since Albert Pujols in 2008-2009 (though Cody Bellinger will have something to say about it).  After a rough start to the season, the Brewers find themselves 2nd in the NL Central and scratching at the heels of the Central leading Cubs.  The Cubs have had a resurgence as well, only to see their three game win streak broken in their last outing.

The Brewers have bested the Cubs 7 out of the last 10 in the series, including of course in their one-game playoff last year at Wrigley.

I feel like Milwaukee’s momentum and recent success mitigates the home crowd advantage, who will be quiet, bundled and nervous on this chilly Chicago day.  The pressure will be higher on the Cubs to start to turn this series around – and I like the plus-value value here. Go with the Brew Crew.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs Under 7.5 (-102) – 1 Unit

We have a battle of undefeated pitchers here. The Brewers Zach Davies vs. the Cubs Cole Hamels. Neither will want to give an inch or lose their perfect marks. Combined these pitchers have pitched 83 innings this season and have only allowed 16 hits & 23 earned runs.

Recent history tilts heavily toward a lower scoring game.  10 out of the last 11 Brewers/Cubs games at Wrigley have gone Under the Total. Overall the Under is 25-8 in the last 33 meetings in the rivalry.

A chilly 51 degree day with high humidity will help keep the ball in the bark.  I’m going with the Brewers and the Under: Brewers 3, Cubs 2.

Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox Over 11 (-110)

Crazy to think that this Total would be so high given that both starter pitchers are former Cy Young winners. However, this ain’t 2010 or 2016 anymore.  Both pictures have looked mighty vulnerable in recent weeks.

Former Detroit Tiger, Rick Porcello has a 5.11 ERA and his 0-3 in his last 3 starts against the Mariners.  Porcello has made it past the 6th innings just once out of 7 starts this season and has given up 7 Home Runs in only 37 innings pitched.

Felix Hernandez has a 5.24 ERA and has given up 10 earned runs and 5 HRs over his past 11 innings pitched.  DH J.D. Martinez is 4-8 against for his career.  Struggling Center Fielder, Jackie Bradley Jr. has actually done solid work against Hernandez in his career, batting 4-12 with 1 HR.  The Over is 16-5 in Felix Hernandez’s last 21 road starts.

Both teams’ bats have been hot recently and both are chalk full of right hand batters that can hit that short porch in right field.

The Red Sox are the 4th best Over team in the MLB at 22-16-1 (58%).

The Mariners have the #1 best Over team in the MLB at 27-12-2 (69%), including 15-5-1 (75%) as the road team.

  
Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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