MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 5/15/19

Yesterday’s Results: 2-2
All-Time Results: 19-19-1, -1.74 Units

Minnesota Twins -156 1st 5 vs. Los Angeles Angels – 1 Unit

Major starting pitcher advantage here between a 29-year old on the upswing and a 31-year old who looks dead in the water.

The performance curve of baseball players is unlike other sports, the skills of the game being so hard to master.

29-year old Jake Odiorizzi has been a solid pitcher in his career – with a 3.88 ERA. But he has been all-star caliber as of late. For the season he has a WHIP well under 1.0. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last 3 starts (20 IP). In that time he has 20 strikeouts compared to only 5 walks. The Twins have won his last 5 starts, and dating back to last season the Twins are 10-2 in his last 12 home starts.

Trevor Cahill may presently be a more recognizable name but he has been a far worse pitcher this season. His 6.35 ERA actually doesn’t tell the whole story of how consistently gettable he’s been. He has allowed at least 2 ER and at least 1 HR in 7 of his 8 starts and has failed to get out of the 5th inning in 4 out of his last 5 starts.

New York Yankees Team Total Over 5.5 vs. Baltimore Orioles (Late Game) (-110) – 1 Unit

After back-to-back weather postponements the sun is out and the sky is clear in New York today. Let’s play two! The Yankees batters will be well rested and ready to put a hurting on a struggling pitcher and bad bullpen.

Baltimore’s starter David Hess has been a particularly dreadful figure on a terrible Orioles staff. Over his last 5 starts his average line is 4.1 IP, 3.3 ER, 1.7 HR, 2.4 SOs. In the highly likely scenario that he doesn’t last long into the game, the Yankees will tee off on Baltimore’s 29th ranked Bullpen ERA, who were ranked 27th last year.

The only reason David Hess’s season numbers aren’t completely awful is because had two decent starts before April 1st. I’m banking that these were the aberrations and his recent form is more of the norm.

The Orioles are 1-7 in their last 8 second halves of a double headers. The Yankees are 3-1 in their last 4 such scenarios.

Toronto Blue Jays +115 @ San Francisco Giants

Macro-fade here, as the Giants seem to be bailing water at the moment.

The Giants longtime manager, Bruce Bochy recently announced that he will retire after the year, casting a pall over an already disappointing season. Add this bad news to a litany of other negative stories working themselves out in the clubhouse. World-Series hero, Madison Bumgarner has already landed on the trading block before the 6th week of the season. Their best young pitching prospect, Derek Rodriguez has already been sent back down to the minors after a rough start. Their best known outfield player, Buster Posey is having his worst batting season since his rookie year – and now finds himself on the injury list under the 7-day concussion protocol.

Don’t see a lot of light to rally around for this team.  Will be happy to fade them in spots, especially against an under-the-radar team like the Toronto Blue Jays.

  
Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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