Yesterday’s Results: 1-2
All-Time Results: 23-24-1, -3.14 Units
Atlanta Braves -110 @ San Francisco Giants – 1 Unit
Fading a disheartened Giants team that has lost 9 of its last 13 outings at Oracle park.
The struggling Giants will trout out Shaun Anderson for his second career start. Although he pitched decently in his debut (2 H, 3B, 2 ER in 5 IP) that was against a Toronto Blue Jays team that has the 2nd least runs in the AL. In the Triple A this year, Anderson had a 4.11 ERA, nothing to write home about. At this point, projecting Anderson to be even an average MLB pitcher would be optimistic.
Conversely, the Braves starter Julio Teheran has been stellar as of late. His ERA (3.88) is at its lowest since 2015 and he has been trending in the right direction since a rough start to the season.
Teheran has more RBIs as a batter in his last game (2) than he has earned runs in 17 innings pitched in May (1).
Braves are 8-2 since moving Ronald Acuna Jr into the lead off spot. Acuna in that time has responded excellently, hitting .341, with 4 HR & 9 RBI.
The Giants are 4-13 in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record.
Atlanta Braves 1st Inning @ San Francisco Giants +280 – 1 Unit
Two factors line up here for a strong additional wager.
1. The Giants do not have any particular threat at the top of their lineup. The best OPS of their first three hitters is Buster Posey at .711. Although it’s not unusual for a catcher to have a below league average OPS, that number is by far the worst of Posey’s career and a major part of the Giants disappointing start to the season.
2. Unproven rookie pitcher, Shaun Anderson will not have much confidence going against one of the hottest hitters in baseball in Ronald Acuna Jr to start the game. Anderson gave up two hits and a walk in the first inning of his MLB debut less than a week ago against the Blue Jays. Look for him to make it 2/2 giving up a run to start the game.
Minnesota Twins @ LA Angels Over 9 (-122) – 1 Unit
Minnesota Twins -102 @ LA Angels – 1 Unit
Trevor Cahill is in a bad way. His 6.95 ERA is bad enough, but he’s actually been worse than that as of late and even worse at home. His ERA in Anaheim is 8.55 and he has given up 23 earned runs over his last 22 innings pitched. He has made it out of the fourth inning just once in his last 6 starts.
Former Yankee, Michael Pineda – 5.55 ERA – hasn’t been much better, losing 6 of his last 7 starts. The Angels also hit right-handers pretty well. If I had to bet one here, I would bet the Over.
But I like the Twins to win as well in large part due to their 8th ranked bullpen vs. the Angels 22nd ranked bullpen. If neither of these pitchers last long, I like the Twins chances better to mount a late rally.
The Angels will also be missing two of their better hitters as Shohei Ohtani and Andrelton Simmons were both injured late in last night’s game.
The Angels will also miss one of their key defensive players in Simmons, who is a four-time Golden Glove winner at SS.
The Twins are one of the least talked about good teams in the Major Leagues, thanks to little interest from either coastal media market. I like being able to fade an LA team that is underperforming vs. a small market team playing well above anybodies pre-season expectations.
The Twins have the second best run differential in baseball at +76, only behind the Astros. They also have by far the best road record in the MLB at 16-8.