MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 5/28/19

Friday’s Results: 2-2
All-Time Results: 30-29-1, +1.42 Units

St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies Over 10 (-118) – 1 Unit

The Philadelphia Phillies give struggling pitcher Nick Pivetta another chance today, after a rough start to the season saw him leave the team for a stint in minors. Pivetta has an ERA north of 8.5 after 4 starts this season. He wasn’t much improved in the minor leagues, where he walked 20 batters in only 37 innings. The club clearly sees some reason for optimism in him – but that might not be until down the line. Right now, he doesn’t seem like much of a threat to stay long in this game against a solid Cardinals lineup.

The Cardinals turn to Adam Wainwright (4-4, 4.8 ERA). While he has been serviceable at times, he is no longer a shut down pitcher. He has only lasted out of the 5th inning once in his last 4 starts and only 3 times in his last 8. If the Phillies lineup do get to him early, they will likely get some good situations to tee off against a Cardinals Bullpen which has gone from decent to terrible over the past month.

St. Louis’s bullpen is a large part of the reason that the Cardinals have the worst record in baseball in May, after having the best record in baseball in April. It’s been a consistent issue that they’ve have been unable to alleviate. Although their season long bullpen ERA is still a respectable 4.13, if we only look at games in May it shoots up to 4.72.

Philadelphia has gone Over the total in 9 out of their last 12 games.

The wind is not gusting in Philly today at only 9 MPH, but it is pointing directly out of the ballpark. While not a huge factor it just might make that one inning-ending flyball float into a game breaking souvenir for the Philly faithful.

Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros Under 9 (-104) – 1 Unit
Chicago Cubs +128 @ Houston Astros – .5 Units

Cubs starter Jon Lester has been roughed up his past two outings and has a losing record for the season. Still, looking at this number holistically, he still looks the part of an solid pitcher. His ERA and K’s/9 are both near career highs and his WHIP is not that much higher than his career average. He will be laser focused after losing his last two starts, hoping to break the Cubs out of a mini-slump this past week.

Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 on the road. They are 28-12 in their last 40 inter-league games.

The Astros have been one of the hottest offensive teams in baseball for most of May. But all of the sudden their bats have cooled. Houston has scored only 29 runs over their last 8 games. The average bettor still sees the Astros as the most fearsome offense in baseball, but I think they might be coming back towards the pack.

The Under has hit in 10 out of the last 11 Astros game.

I also do not think the market has adjusted enough for these cluster injuries to both team best hitters.

Jose Altuve remains out for the Astros. George Springer also went down with a hamstring injury this past Friday.

Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist are out for the Cubs. Jason Heyward remains questionable.

Between these two teams the under is 9-4 over the last 13 and 41-19-2 over their last 62 in Houston.

The Wind might be a factor, as it is blowing straight out of the ball park at 16 MPH. However, it is 87 degrees and muggy in Houston this afternoon. If I were fan on my way to Minute Maid Park, I would be hopeful the club would close the retractable roof for this game, which would neutralize the weather conditions.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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