Yesterday’s Results: 0-3
All-Time Results: 30-32-1, -1.08 Units
Detroit Tigers +108 @ Baltimore Orioles – 1 Unit
The Tigers finally got a win yesterday! This achievement pushes their record up to a solid 2-12 in their last 14!
Detroit will look to start its first winning streak since they won both games of a double header in Boston back on April 23rd. Since then they are 0-6 in games coming after a loss. Today is lucky game #7.
Even in a win the Tigers offense remains a glaring problem. Detroit only scored 3 runs yesterday, and have now scored more than 4 runs just once in their last 14 games.
These past two weeks have seen the Tigers value in the marketplace drop from middle of the pack all the way to the one of the worst in the league.
All that to say: the Tigers could lose like this for two more weeks straight and still not be close to as historically bad as the Orioles have been.
In a rubber match between two of the worst teams in MLB, give me the team that at least has been something less than terrible at some point over the past two seasons.
Orioles should not be any kind of favorite at home when they are 7-20 at home this season and 17-38 overall. Over the past two seasons, the Orioles are 35-73 when they play in Baltimore. That is good for a 52 Win pace in their own ballpark. The value here is on the Tigers.
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+112) – 1 Unit
Rarely will I take a home team on the reverse run line because we may are likely to see only 8 at bats. That said, a few factors line-up nicely for the home team here, leading me to believe it will be a comfortable win.
The Cardinals will be throwing first time MLB starter Genesis Cabrera out into the Lions den against a red hot Phillies team. Cabrera put together a 32-27 record over 6 seasons in the Minors, including a 10-13 record since the beginning of 2018. He doesn’t get a lot of strikeouts, so the Phillies will have plenty to hit and it will up to them to convert. I think they will do so. The Phillies are 4th in the league in runs scored at home.
Philadelphia, winners of 4 out of its last 5, counter with one of their best pitchers, Aaron Nola. Like so many Grade-A Aces this season, Nola has had a rough spring. However, he has turned around as of late. In his last 7 starts, Nola has a solid 3.05 ERA and has given up 1 or less run in 4 out of the 7 games. Either pitcher could have a rough day, but it seems far more likely for the rookie to experience a hiccup here. With a Total set around 10 to 10.5, I feel comfortable laying the extra run and a half here.
San Francisco Giants -116 @ Miami Marlins – 1 Unit
Long time Giants Ace, Madison Bumgarner (3-4, 4.11 ERA) is in the perfect situation to stop his teams 6 game losing streak here. He will take on one of the worst lineups in the Bigs, who have happened to be hot recently.
Bumgarner is trending in the right direction after a terrible start to the season. In his last outing he allowed only two earned in 6 innings.
The Marlins bats have been on fire recently, as they have put up 35 runs in their last 6 games and over 10 runs twice in their past 5. Feel like their recent success obscures the fact that that they’ve been dreadful swinging the bat all season. The Marlins rank 30th in Slugging, OPS, HRs & Runs scored in the MLB.
Two weeks ago this line would be much higher given Bumgarner’s name recognition. Maybe even -150. I think the market has moved a little bit too far too fast. I like the road favorites here.
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