MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 6/20/19
Colorado Rockies +154 @ Arizona Diamondbacks
The Colorado Rockies have won their last 6 match-ups against the Diamondbacks. Specifically in Arizona, they have won 8 out of their last 9 against them, including 5 straight. The hot, thin air of Chase Field seems to simulate the Rockies much improved offensive production at home vs. the road. Over the past two seasons the Rockies have averaged a full run higher in Arizona (5.2) vs. their overall run production on the road (4.2).
Rockies starter, Jeff Hoffman (1-3, 7.04 ERA) has struggled this season. But Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray (5-4, 3.83 ERA) has been shelled in his last couple outings as well. I don’t see either starting pitcher being the difference here. Considering the Rockies hot streak in this match up, the +154 figure is just too juicy to pass up.
Cincinnati Reds +124 @ Milwaukee Brewers
The Reds are coming off a hugely impressive sweep of the Astros at home, and will hit the road with a bounce in their step. Meanwhile the NL Central Favorite Brewers have lost 4 of 5.
The mantra for most of the beginning of the season for the Brewers was that they just needed to hold down the fort until their star Ace Jimmy Nelson returned. However, in two starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, Nelson (0-1, 10.3 ERA) has not yet looked like his old self. Against the pitiful offenses of the Marlins and the Giants, Nelson has failed to get out of the 4th inning and has allowed more than one earned run per inning.
He will face a much better offense in the Reds. One that features an All-Timer left handed bat in Joey Votto and another all star quality lefty in Derek Dietrich. Votto has not had a vintage season, but his production has returned to his usual stellar standards during the month of June. Dietrich has probably been the Reds most consistent performer throughout the season.
While Nelson has been hammered by both righties and lefties so far in his young return season, looking back at his career as a whole, left-handed power has been a serious sore spot for the pitcher. Left handers have a very strong .787 OPS vs. Nelson for his career, while righties produce only a .688 OPS against him. He also gives up about 50% more Home Runs per PA to Lefties.
Conversely, Reds starter Tanner Roark (4-6, 3.63 ERA) has been solid all season. He has a strong strikeout rate of about 1 per inning.
More than likely Nelson will not last long into the game, which bring into play the Brewers up and down bullpen. Unlike the Brew Crew, the Reds boast the second best Bullpen in the league, only behind the other Ohio team in the AL.
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+116) vs. San Francisco Giants
Maybe the best rivalry in baseball happens to pit one of the worst offenses this year vs. one of the all time best. I don’t expect the Giants to able to handle Walker Buehler who has given up only 1 run in his last 22 Innings. Madison Bumgarner continues to have a disjointed season and may be distracted as we get closer and closer to the trade deadline.
The series tied at a game a piece, I expect to see an intense game with both teams locked in. Given maximum focus and effort, the Dodgers just have way too much talent to let the Giants hang around. The Dodgers boast an incredible 7 players with a WAR above 1.0, while the Giants only have one in resurgent outfielder Pablo Sandoval, who many expected to be out of the league by now. While this game might be close for awhile as the two solid starters go at it – I expect the Dodgers to pull away decisively late.
