MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 6/21/19

Atlanta Braves +122 @ Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves -1.5 +196 @ Washington Nationals

The 2015 AL Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel will have his Atlanta Braves debut Friday night and I expect him to pitch great and accelerate an already surging Atlanta team.

Here is a partial list of other Cy Young Caliber Pitchers that made their First Start with a new team after a mid-season acquisition:

2017 First start with the Astros for Justin Verlander (Age 34): 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 SO W

2012 First Start with Angels for Zach Grienke (Age 28): 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 SO W

2010 First start with the Phillies for Roy Oswalt (Age 32): 6 IP 4 ER, 2 SO L

2009 First start with the Phillies for Cliff Lee (Age 30): 9 IP 1 ER, 6 SO W

2008 First Start with Brewers for CC Sabathia (Age 28): 6 IP 2 ER, 5 SO W

2000 First Start with Diamondbacks for Curt Schilling (Age 33): 8 IP, 1 ER, 5 S0 W

atlanta bravesAggregate Performance for Cy Young Pitcher in Mid-Season Debut: 7 IP, 1.83 ER, 5.5 SO. Among this group only Roy Oswalt lost his debut for his new team. The other 5 pitchers earned Wins.

Although reportedly some teams shied away from signing him because of his age, Keuchel is middle of the pact in this group at only 32. Recuperation techniques and technology have only advanced over the years – and Keuchel has worked diligently for months to be ready for this moment.

In this spot, these pitchers have a lot of advantages. They are better rested and more focused than their competition. Their most recent pitches have not been as well scouted by their new opponents. They both have the excitement of starting a new chapter of their careers and the pressure to prove their worth. While some players shy away from pressure – there is a reason these pitchers have been elite and much sought after assets: they thrive in the moment.

Behind their new Ace, the Braves boast the hottest offense in baseball. Since calling up outfielder Austin Riley, the Braves have reeled of 23 wins in 33 games. In 18 games in June, the Braves have scored less than 5 runs on only three occasions. They have averaged 7.39 Runs Per Game for the month.

Only helping their cause, the Braves are coming off a rest/travel day. Conversely, the Nationals are coming off an emotional and intense series against their bitter rival Phillies, who signed away their best player this off-season. Washington earning a sweep in that critical series makes me feel they are much more likely to let their foot of the gas for this encounter.

I feel that the Braves should be significant favorites in this game. The fact that the Nationals are rolling out a big name pitcher in Stephen Strasburg accounts for much if not all of the misplaced line. Keuchel going forward could be ever bit the Ace that Strasburg is, if not better. The rest of the match-up lends significant edges to the Braves.

Milwaukee Brewers -128 @ Cincinnati Reds

Get right game for the Brewers. Losers of 5 of their last 6, the Brewers are starting to fade out of the top of the NL Central and are simply too talented to take that step back lightly.

I faded the Brewers yesterday largely because I didn’t think Jimmy Nelson has gotten his best stuff back yet. There is no such starting pitching advantage today for the Reds. Sonny Gray has been solid for the Reds, but so has Chase Anderson been for the Brew Crew.

milwaukee brewersYelich tends to stay hot. Christian Yelich has homered in back to back games 8 times this season, including these past two games. In the 7 games so far Yelich has played since coming off back-back HR games, CY has a total of 4 HRs, 10 Hits and 4 walks. I always like picking a team with an MVP player because the of the positive vibes that resonates from their outstanding production.

Without a significant pitching advantage the Brewers should be significant favorites to win the game. The recent small sample size for Milwaukee is depressing the price here and presenting a solid wagering opportunity.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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