Tueday’s Results: 1-2
All-Time Results: 35-39-1, -2.33 Units
Cleveland Indians -102 @ NY Yankees – 1 Unit
The resilient Yankees, reeling after a series loss against the terrible Toronto Blue Jays, turn to a 9-1 pitcher in this match-up in Cleveland. Sounds like a get right game for the Bronx Bombers, correct?
I’m not so sure. In fact, I think the wrong team is favored here.
Yankees starter, Domingo German (9-1, 3.67 ERA) has been a revelation for the Injury-riddled Yankees this season and are a big part of their surprisingly strong start to the season. But all of his stats outside of his W-L record indicate a good, improving pitcher. Not yet a dominant arm. German has been shelled in his last two outings, giving up 10 runs in last 8.2 innings. The 26-year old owns an 0-1 record with a 5.4 ERA in two career starts against the Indians.
The Indians go with a pitcher with a nearly opposite profile, albeit in a much smaller sample size. Rookie pitcher, Zach Plesac (0-1, 1.46 ERA) has yet to record a win despite pitching excellently in his first two starts in the MLB.
I expect the Indians to finally provide some run support for the 24-year-old Plesac, who has only allowed 2 runs in 12.1 innings of work. If Plesac doesn’t last long, the Indians have the good fortune of turning to the best bullpen in the MLB so far this season.
Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton remain out for the Yankees. Judge is expected to return in the next couple weeks, possibly in their London showcase against the Boston Red Sox. Feels like the Yankees are happy to just tread water at the moment until they get at least one of their bombers back.
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers over 10 (-106) – 1 Unit
It’s a hot windy day in Arlington Texas, perfect for the flight of a baseball. It will be 87 degrees around first pitch at Globe Life Park, with a 12 MPH tailwind behind the batters blowing out toward right field.
Neither pitcher scares me here and I expect the teams’ below average bullpens to become a factor early.
The A’s start Brett Anderson (6-4, 3.96 ERA). For his career, Anderson has a 3-4 record against the Rangers, with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.439 WHIP. Back on April 14th, Anderson pitched a no decision against these Rangers. The A’s ended up losing that contest 8-7.
Texas will hand the ball to perennial middling pitcher, Lance Lynn (7-4, 4.50 ERA). Lynn will likely have to work out chemistry with a new catcher, as Isiah Kiner-Falefa went down yesterday with a finger injury. After the game, manager Chris Woodward admitted the injury “did not look good” . If Kiner-Falefa is out, the Rangers do not have a veteran catcher in reserve to call pitches for Lynn, and I would expect him to struggle.
Cincinnati Reds +106 @ Philadelphia Phillies – 1 Unit
The big question mark heading into this game is whether Phillies SP Zach Eflin can return to form after spending 10 days on the Injured List with a back spasms. I’m thinking it will take sometime before he’s back to 100%. These Reds are ready to take advantage.
Reds starter Tyler Mahle has a rough start to his third year in the MLB, but his record is much worse than his underlying statistics would indicate. His 1.255 WHIP and his SO/9 of 9.8 are both really solid numbers. His walks per inning are also less than half of his career average at only 2.3 per 9 innings. I look for him to start to put all these positive trends together in this one and pull out a win.
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