Yesterday’s Results: 3-0
All-Time Results: 46-46-1, +0.65 Units
Cleveland Indians -138 vs. Minnesota Twins – 1 Unit
Maybe the most impressive team split in the first half of this season, the Twins went 28-18 on the road. No doubt manager, Rocco Baldelli’s team must be commended for their professionalism and alertness to post such a gaudy record in opposing ballparks so far this year. However, do we expect the Twins amazing road performance to continue in the second half? The Twins are know prominently on the radar of each of their opponents. They would be happy with a road record even as half as many games above .500 for the rest of the year.
Based on the last two weeks, this Indians team looks every bit the equal of their division rival. Cleveland has won 6 in a row – and its offense is finally looking like a decent compliment to its lights out pitching. The Indians remains #1 in Bullpen ERA in the MLB.
Cleveland will hand the ball to Mike Clevinger for the start. I think Clevinger is much better than his stats for this year indicate. The right-hander strained a muscle in his back in early April. In his first two starts back he got rocked, giving up 12 ER in 6 IP combined. However in his last start he pitched excellently, with 9 K’s and 0 ER in 6 IP. Moreover, the two previous seasons before this one, Clevinger was one of the best pitchers in his age group with an ERA right around 3.
Don’t think the market has adjusted to Clevinger’s recent stellar play and the likelihood he returns to the form of the past few seasons. The Twins gaudy road record may have been somewhat fortuitous, and I feel good laying a small number with a hot Cleveland team here.
Atlanta Braves -107 vs San Diego Padres – 1 Unit
Feels like I like the Braves in almost every match up these days. They’ve been good to me the last few months, so I can’t stop now, particularly with this apparent pitching advantage.
Former Cy Young winner, Dallas Keuchel has been sneaky good since his mid season debut with Atlanta. Keuchel hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in any of his 3 starts, and has lasted longer and longer each game.
Padres starter, Dinelson Lamet will be making his second start after a long layoff after his Tommy John Surgery. In his first outing back, Lamet lasted only 5 innings. With only 22 career starts and a 4.6 career ERA – Lamet hasn’t proved to have the potential close an on-form Keuchel.
A comparison of the rest of the squads also gives a decided edge to Atlanta. They have a much better lineup first of all. And they even have a better bullpen than the Padres, who have been much touted as a “pitcher-friendly” organization that puts emphasis on that side of the plate.
The Padres despite all their talent have only been a .500 Home Team, and the Braves have been the 4th best MLB team on the road with a 26-18 record. I like the Braves.
Houston Astros -1.5 (-130) vs Texas Rangers – 1 Unit
After taking the Rangers yesterday, I love the Astros to bounce back with a bang in this one. Instead of facing Lance Lynn, they will tea off against Jesse Chavez, who has made more appearances this season from the Bullpen than he has as a starter. Chavez may be more of an opener than a starter – as he has been pulled after 1-3 innings in 4 of his 7 “starts”.
So if Chavez is unlikely to last long into the game, we have to pair each team’s offense against each team’s bullpen. Big advantage to Houston.
Because they were down by 5 runs most of the game, the Astros did not turn to any of their elite relievers in last night’s game. Ryan Pressly (1.36 ERA), Will Harris (1.95 ERA) and star closer Roberto Osuna (1.95 ERA) will all be ready and chomping at the bit to see their first action in well over a week.
Love when I can find a spot to play a road team on the run line, because they guaranteed to get the maximum 9 Innings of At-Bats. Lay the 1.5 and cash.