Friday’s Results: 1-2
All-Time Results: 47-48-1, -0.35 Units
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – 1 Unit
Dodgers eked out a 12 inning nail-bitter against cross-coast rivals Boston last night. Immediately after the game broke, the team had to find a late night (early morning) flight down East Coast to get ready for this afternoon game against the Phillies. Dodgers must me ecstatic after winning the series against Boston, who defeated them in last year’s World Series. They are seemingly countless games up in the NL West. They may have a let down here.
The Dodgers easily have the better lineup – but it seems that much of their edge here is due to their apparent starting pitching advantage – which may be overstated by the market here.
Clayton Kershaw just played in his 8th all star game, but is not the dominant MVP-caliber pitcher he used to be. Moreover, at home Kershaw is 6-0 with a 2.52 ERA – but on the road Kershaw is just a 1-2 with a 3.99 ERA.
Whereas Kershaw is an all-time great producing diminishing returns, Zach Efflin is a rising star attempting to reach new heights. Like Kershaw, he has been much better at home this year. Efflin is 5-2 at home with a 3.04 ERA vs. 2-6 on the road and a 4.44 ERA.
Phillies are clawing to stay in the wildcard race, have a scheduling advantage, and have a greater home-field advantage than usual thanks to the starting pitchers’ splits. Put those three together and you have a solid +EV wager on the Phillies here.
Philly is 7-2 in their last nine at home.
NY Yankees (-140) vs. Tampa Bay Rays – 1 Unit
Rays SP, 2018 Cy Young Award winner, Blake Snell has been good at home the last two outings after a rough first half of the season. Snell has been awful on the road with a 2-4 record and 6.48 ERA.
Both Tampa Bay and New York are coming series wins against terrible teams (Orioles and Blue Jays) – however NY had a harder challenge against Toronto, who held their bats in check all series and forced them to play a rubber match in game 3.
Paxton looked dynamic in his last game (also against the Rays) hitting over 98 MPH well into the 7th inning. Yankees are 6-1 in Paxton’s last 7 starts and 6-2 in their last 8 games against the Rays.
Don’t over think this one: Take the Yanks.
Chicago White Sox (-135) @ Kansas City Royals
The White Sox remain a team that I think has a bright future, even as they have fallen off the pace in the AL Central the past couple weeks, mostly due to poor starting pitching.
All that should be alleviated when Los Calcientes Blancos trot out their best arm in Lucas Giolito. The 25-year old, Giolito has saved his best stuff for the road, boasting a 6-1 record on the road with a 2.73 ERA.
Giolito is 2-0 this year in Kansas City, giving up only 2 ER in 14.1 IP.
The Royals may be the team of the (distant) future. But as their Home Bailey Trade yesterday confirmed – they are not acquiring talent to help them win in the present day. Back the White Sox with confidence. One team actually wants to win games this season, and it’s not the Royals.
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