Monday’s Results: 0-3
All-Time Results: 47-51-1, -3.35 Units
Minnesota Twins -150 @ NY Mets – 1 Unit
Here we have a Mets team that has been one of the worst teams in the MLB on the road since May 1st, starting a pitcher that has been even worse than the rest of his terrible team on the road.
Steven Matz is 3-0 Citi Field in Queens, with a 2.54 ERA. Cy Young stuff, right? Well not if you factor in his 2-6 road record, set to the tune of 7.07 road ERA.
The Mets can take no comfort in the rest of their staff once Matz gets blasted. Not with the 28th ranked bullpen, giving up 5.5 runs per 9 innings pitched.
The Mets as a team have been atrocious on the road. After starting out a decent 9-5 away from home, the Mets are 10-27 in their last 37 Road Games. The Mets are also 0-4 in Matz last 4 inter league starts.
On the other side, Twins starter Michael Pineda has had an up and down season. I think his variance has solid reasons behind it – enough where we can predict him to get his best stuff back going forward. Pineda came into the season in the final stages of his recuperation of Tommy John surgery. He started the year out on fire – and then hit some struggles as the wear and tear of the season settled in. Pineda gave up exactly 3 runs in each of his 6 starts from May 5 to June 7th. Since then he has gotten his second wind. Pineda has held opponents to only 1 run in 4 of his last 5 starts.
The break might have done him service as well. Since it has been 10 full days since he’s pitched, I like for him to be strong in this one.
He is likely to get some support from the terrific Twins offense in this game. Minnesota is #1 in the MLB in BA vs. Lefties – and I don’t see Steven Matz reversing that trend.
This line has started to move up since it opened at -130. Still think there is value here, but definitely be judicious when shopping for the best number.
Texas Rangers -168 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Under 10 (-110)
Riding Lance Lynn again, thanks mostly due to his consistency. The 6’5, 280 LB workhorse has been the most reliable starter in the MLB in terms of quality outings. He has contributed 6+ innings of work in each of his last 14 starts, and 7+ innings of work in each of last 5 starts.
In that 14 start window, Lynn has steadily improved his performance as well. His ERA was 5.5 on April 28th when this streak started and has jumped down little by little until we see it today at 3.69. Here is his month-by-month trajectory:
April/March 3-2, 5.45 ERA
May 3-2, 3.82 ERA
June 4-0, 2.9 ERA
July 2-0, 1.29 ERA
The Rangers have supported Lynn well in Arlington. Lynn is 8-0 at home despite having a slightly higher ERA than he does on the road.
On the other side, we have a rookie pitcher that has made an impressive MLB debut through 3 appearances.
Young has pitched 3 times (2 starts) in the Major League – and his on a Hall of Fame trajectory if you were to extrapolate just these three games. Young has pitched 13.1 Innings and only has 1 ER to his name so far in his MLB career.
However, when we consider the power and importance of sample size – all signs point back to Lynn and the Rangers. While I can’t help but be impressed by Young’s first few games – they remain only a few games. I like Lynn to win this pitching duel by outlasting the young gun – and for the Rangers to pull away late in a tight affair.
Lynn is 6-0 with a 2.8 ERA in 10 Career starts against the Diamondbacks.
Perhaps a little too much made of the heat: The Under is 19-12 in the Last 31 Home Rangers games.
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