MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 7/22/19
Wednesday’s Results: 1-2
All Time Results: 48-58-2, -9.35 Units
Contents
St. Louis Cardinals +142 @ Pittsburgh Pirates – 1 Unit
Piece of handicapping wisdom that resonated with me over the weekend. As we get further into the second half of the MLB – separation will occur. First of all, the confidence of the better teams will continue be buttressed by their increasing sample size of playing well together (>1/2 a season by now). Secondly, the reverse will occur for the bad teams. Lastly, and most importantly, the intentions of the worse teams will shift. While teams in the hunt will continue to strategize for the short term – winning – non-playoff teams will prioritize player development.
Key example: The Cardinals and the Pirates. Two teams diverging in opposite directions here.
Pirates are a key candidate to fade at 46-52. There are now 6 teams between themselves and the last wild card spot. Making their road tougher is that they play in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball. Their playoff chances according to FanGraph have fallen to less than 3%.
Conversely, the Cardinals have rocketed back into contention. They’ve won 6 of their last 9. Moreover, there is an institutional expectation to beat expectations. Having banners has an affect on everyone involved in an organization, especially the fans. Several games out of the playoffs back in September 2011, the Cardinals were 300/1 to win the World Series, which of course they won. I remember that number because famously a twitter tout put a $500 bet on those odds and cashed $150,000. The organization knows that they have the pedigree to turn around and be a contender – which is now realistic. After this current hot streak, FanGraphs has spiked their playoffs to a solid 30%.
With divergent macro-tends and a pitching advantage (Daniel Ponce de Leon 2.8 ERA> Trevor Williams 5.17 ERA) to boot, I like the Cardinals at a reasonable -108 price.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates Under 9.5 (-118) – 1 Unit
Although Pirates starter Trevor Williams has an ERA north of 5, his more predictive FIP is a more solid 4.3. He’s had some rough home-run luck over his past 5 games allowing 9 long balls. I like the veteran to lock in and put in a good performance at home to keep this one close.
Cardinals starter Juan Ponce de Leon, as well is coming off of a rough start. Even with that one bad game, he has been solid for the Cardinals all year, only allowing 7 earned runs in his 5 starts. Cardinals went 5-1 in those starts, and the Under also 4-2 in those games.
Several larger trends favor the under for these teams as well. Under is 8-3 over the Cardinals last 11, and 5-1 in the Pirates last 6.
Boston Red Sox (-130) @ Tampa Bay Rays – 1 Unit
While both these teams are firmly in the playoff race, we have a similar story here. One team surging, one team plateauing.
The Red Sox playoff chances according to Fan Graphs now sit at 47.6%, compared to the Tampa Bay Rays at 58.9%. Before to the season the Red Sox clocked in at 90.3% to make the playoffs compared to the Rays 28.2%.
Hard to put a pin on why the Red Sox failed to meet expectations in the first half of the season and why the Rays have exceeded them greatly.
However, the Red Sox true ability merits their chances to catch up and pass the Rays.
A big question mark for the Red Sox has been their starting pitching beyond their Aces. The development of 26-year old Eduardo Rodriguez may be the exact anecdote to what’s ailed them. And potentially the key for them to return to the dominate form they displayed last year, as one of the best baseball teams ever.
Rodriguez has a month by month ERA graph that looks like a chart of the number of phone booths in Manhattan from 1990 to today. The limit is 0 type stuff. Rodriguez had a 2-2 record, 6.16 ERA in 6 starts in April/March. In July he is 3-0, with a 1.96 ERA in July.
Similarly, Boston runs per game looks like this year’s Shopify stock chart. Up and to the right. Boston was 21st in runs scored in April. They are 2nd in July, only behind the white hot San Francisco Giants.
The Rays appear to be going with Jalen Beeks to be their opener, as this will be the first start of the year for the reliable reliever. I expect this to be a lower scoring game in Tampa. If the Rays are throwing several pitchers at this Boston line-up, I like the odds of one of them faltering and the Red Sox to have a breakout inning.
