MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 7/24/19

Tuesday’s Results: 2-1
All Time Results: 52-60-2, -7.46 Units

Phillies -1.5 (+100) – 1 Unit
Phillies/Tigers Total Over 10 (-120) – 1 Unit

I felt it a misleading scoreline that these two teams combined to score only 5 runs last night.   Both teams batted pretty decently throughout.  There were 20 total men left on base between the teams and both squads had several run scoring opportunities thwarted by impeccable defense. Brad Miller threw a spectacular outfield assist to nail the potential game-winning run by Nicholas Castellanos in the 10th.  Castellanos, who himself had a spectacular run-saving catch several innings earlier, was a fraction of a second from scoring and winning the game.

Detroit starters veteran Jordan Zimmerman (0-7, 7.51 ERA) at this point must be considered most overpaid players in all of sports. He is among the worst regular starters of this MLB season. The 33-year old has pitched 11 total innings in his last 3 starts. In those games the Tigers gave up 30 runs as a team. In his 12 starts for the season, Tigers allow 6.3 runs per game, including 7.3 over his last 10.

Vince Velasquez has not been much better on the road for the Phillies, with a 2-4 record and 5.26 ERA. Velasquez spent most of May and June coming out of the bullpen. In the 5 starts since he has been reintroduced as a starter, Velasquez has not made it out of the 5th inning once. In those five games, the Phillies allowed an average of 7.2 runs.

Just like the Reds beat up on the Brewers after enjoying a comeback win the night before, I like the Phillies give the Tigers a definitive home loss.  The Tigers don’t have the firepower to hang around in a shootout.  Of the thirteen losses the Tigers have wracked so far in July, only their loss last night was by less than 2 runs.

San Francisco Giants +138 vs. Chicago Cubs – 1 Unit

The Giants have beaten the Cubs twice in a row, improving their incredible July Hot Streak to 16 wins in their past 19.

Chasing a streak like this no doubt comes with its own set of perils, but I like this pick regardless based primarily on how relatively poor the Cubs and Cubs starter Jon Lester have been on the road this season. At 18-29 , the Cubs have by far the worst road record of any team with current playoff chances over 25%. 3.5 games worse than the Brewers, for example, a 3-1 shot to make the post-season.

Lester is only 3-4 on the road with a 5.09 ERA, close to double his Home ERA. His strikeout rate – 9.0 at Wrigley Field – drops to a meager 2.6 when outside of The Friendly Confines.

The Giants starter, Tyler Beed is coming off his best outing of the season, throwing 8 scoreless last week against the Mets. About average overall (4.70 ERA) Beede has been better at home (3.10 ERA at home) and better recently (1.66 ERA in July).

I like the Giants to hang around and win it late.