MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 7/26/19
Thursday’s Results: 0-3
All Time Results: 53-65-2, -8.46 Units
Contents
San Francisco Giants +130 @ San Diego Padres
The Padres and Giants have had very similar narratives surround them in 2019. High expectations, all but dashed early in the season. Clubhouse turmoil. The potential for a franchise altering trade looming around the team like a shadow to their disappointing record.
But somewhere in the past months the Giants and Padres paths have diverged. The Giants and their three time champion manager Bruce Bochy have hit their stride and have made a late wild card push, winning 16 of 20. Over the same time, embattled manager of the Padres Andy Green has watched his team’s playoff chances dwindle and all but disappear.
Giants starter Jeff Samardzija has pitched better against the Padres than any other team. For his career, Samardzija has 9 wins against the Friars, and is 5-2 when pitching in San Diego.
On the other hand, the Padres have lost 5 of Joey Lucchesi‘s last 7 starts, including his last 2 at home.
The Giants are 8-0 in their last 8 against teams with losing records. It may be hard to believe, considering their preseason expectations. But the Padres are one of those teams.
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+245) @ New York Mets
The Pirates are not a worse than team the New York Mets on any day not featuring Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard.
The Mets have a similar record to the Pirates thanks largely due to the fact that they play in a worse division and they boast two of the most feared pitchers in baseball.
Today’s Mets starter, Zach Wheeler is not in their class. Wheeler has been battling a shoulder injury and last featured three weeks ago when he got shelled. Whether or not he is 100% physically back to his peak form, I like the chances of him displaying serious rust against a Pirates lineup that is pretty consistent 1-9. While the Pirates only have 1 player, Josh Bell, with an OPS over .900, they have 6 regular starters with OPS’s above .750.
Even if Wheeler immediately returns to his season averages, he is still just an average starter with a 4.69 ERA and 4.17 FIP.
Pirates starter, rookie Dario Agrazal, has been better than average with a 2.25 ERA and .235 opponents batting average against. Over his last 4 starts he has pitched 24 innings and only allowed 5 runs.
I like the Pirates to breakout of their slump and win easy.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox Over 11 (-120)
The Yankees have averaged 6.0 runs per game in 14 games since the All Star Break. The average total in their games during that stretch is 11.1.
The Red Sox have averaged 6.6 runs per game in 14 games since the All Star Break. The average total in their games during that stretch is 12.07.
In the last three games between these teams there have been 72 runs scored – which has to be some kind of record. Even given the short porch they were hitting over in London, that’s 24 runs per game for 3 games. If they score half their recent average, we hit the over.
Yankees starter James Paxton and Red Sox starter Andrew Cashner will come in to try and stay the carnage, but both are trending the wrong direction with their teams having lost their last 6 starts combined.
7-9 MPH winds blowing towards the monster in left field only helps. But let’s get real this play is all about the 2 best offenses in baseball accelerating their scoring as the summer progresses at a rate the market struggles to adjust to.
