MLB FanDuel Sportsbook Betting Picks with Lines & Odds – 7/5/19

Yesterday’s Results: 1-2
All-Time Results: 40-46-1, -3.9 Units

Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -138 @ New York Mets – 1 Unit
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +260 @ New York Mets – 1 Unit

Starting pitching doesn’t mean what it once did. Starters don’t last as long – and the rise in HR’s makes any Ace vulnerable to a single lucky swing of the bat. The public is naturally slower to react to these shifting trends than the betting market. And I still think big name pitchers are being overpriced.

The 5 highest paid pitchers in the MLB this season (Strasburg, Scherzer, Greinke, Price, Kershaw): have a combined record of 40-16, which is pretty awesome actually. The next 5 highest paid (Verlander, Hernadez, Lester, Zimmerman, Arietta) have a combined record of just 26-24. Go figure.

Perhaps the good GM’s in baseball have the analytics of pitching down to such an exact science that they were able to pluck out the A+’s from the A’s and pay them appropriately. Or maybe it’s just that the best teams in baseball have that much more cache with their ownership to pay their best pitchers exorbitantly. Jordan Zimmerman and Felix Hernandex surely could not expected to post a good record on the Tigers and Mariners, respectively. At the same time, Zimmerman and Hernandez are surely not as good as some of these other guys either.

Jacob deGrom falls just outside of this range. He signed two deals this off-season. In January he signed an arbitrated one year deal for $17 million. In March he a signed a four deal that will plop him at the top of the list for the next half decade – not to mention a deferred fortune he will receive in his late 40’s.

philadelphia philliesPerhaps this is just a gap year for his brilliance. The team – middling – his stuff good, his record average. Not that he doesn’t care – but it’s just not the magic of Major League Baseball like it used to be. It’s a stepping stone to bigger things.

The Mets are 5-12 on the season when deGrom starts. That includes losing 6 of his last 7 goes. Despite his team’s struggles deGRom himself has posted a solid 3.32 ERA and 3.25 xFIP. Those are decent numbers. The kind worthy of $20 million – if not 30+.

Maybe he’ll be the best pitcher in the league next year – when he’s paid like it. Maybe the team will start hitting for him then, too. Today – he & them should not be a -180 favorite against a non-terrible team. It’s just too much!

The Phillies are big underdogs despite the fact that a statement win would earn them a regained lead for the Wild Card in the NL. The Mets winning just makes my friend Nicholas Spyropoulos happy on his deck in Long Island.

The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 against the Mets. They’ve needed everyone one of them. I don’t think they will waste this opportunity to make it 6 in a row and get back in the playoff conversation.

New York Yankees -110 @ Tampa Bay Rays – 1 Unit

The Yankees have all their marquee bats back, and a few surging stars that no one saw coming at the beginning of the year.

Aaron Judge had a remarkably efficient June after returning from injury before slowing down the past couple games. I think him & Giancarlo Stanton will only get better as the season progresses and they get re-accumulated to playing every day.

They have a lot of protection in the lineup now to ease any short term troubles. DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela have all improved their OPS by over 150 points from last season. Luke Voit has continued to impress since he came over last year from the Cardinals.

new york yankeesFeels like the summer of the Bombers all the sudden. Their World Series odds have dropped from 7/1 to 4/1 over the last three weeks.

What about their much ballyhooed – and subsequently much maligned- Bullpen? It’s still coming together,, but it’s getting there. Take a look at these sets of stats:

Player A through their Age 31 Season: 533 IP, 2.63 ERA, 478 SO 215 SV

Aroldis Chapman Career Stats at Age 31: 512 IP, 2.21 ERA 847 SO, 259 SV

Player A is Mariano Friggin’ Rivera – who obviously did most of his historic work in the post-season. Don’t forget, though, he also steadily become a better regular season closer throughout his 30s. A position that is so much associated with explosion and power actually may need a veteran’s calm to perfect. Chapman may not be that 22 year-old kid throwing a 105, wowing the crowds in Cincy. He may actually be much better.

Yankees currently have the 10th best Bullpen in baseball, but I feel their potential is much better than that. Reminiscent of Wetteland/Rivera in the mid 90’s, the 1-2 punch of Chapman and Zach Britton is the best in baseball. Britton has allowed a run only twice in his last 25 appearances.

Like last night, I get the feeling this will be another close affair against the two division rivals. If it is, you will be happy you took the Bronx squad.

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Born in Chicago, born for Las Vegas, Mackenzie is a graduate of Yale University with a BA in English & Creative Writting. Mackenzie runs AlternativeStats.blog, which seeks to by-pass the minutiae of commonly cited sports statistics and expose the heart of what drives athletic success. After several successful years investing in Las Vegas real estate, Mackenzie is excited to transition in 2019 into betting on sports full time, as well as documenting his thought process as he further learns the craft.

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