MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Tuesday’s Slate (8/22/23)

After Hurricane Hilary impacted the Sunday and Monday schedules, all 30 teams are set to be back in action on Tuesday. Kyle Harrison’s MLB debut might be the highlight of the schedule, while Blake Snell and Zac Gallen will both make their latest pitch for Cy Young. Let’s take a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets on the board.

MLB Best NRFI and YRFI Bets for August 22nd, 2023

Here’s a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets from Tuesday’s slate of games.

Twins vs. Brewers NRFI (-111)

The Brewers have been doing a lot of winning lately, getting consistent contact out of Christian Yelich and William Contreras at the top of their lineup, but they’ve still only scored a first inning run in two of their last eight games. The odds are in Bailey Ober’s favor on Tuesday.

Ober has been totally hit or miss lately, but a strong 1.13 WHIP is a reminder that his excellent control still makes him a relatively safe pitcher. Ober has only allowed more than 3 ER in three of his 20 starts this season, and a Brewers offense still sitting 22nd in runs per game shouldn’t pose a huge challenge early on.

On the other side, the top of the Twins’ lineup can’t be trusted. Edouard Julien is one of the only contact threats in the lineup, and the power hitters just haven’t delivered consistently enough to make Minnesota’s offense a problem.

Wade Miley has quietly been ultra steady for the Brewers of late, and he’s allowed a first inning run in just two of his 16 starts this season (12.5%) — the only instance since April was last week’s outing against the Dodgers. The Twins are no Dodgers. -111 is a nice line here.

Blue Jays vs. Orioles NRFI (-118)

These are two teams that can absolutely hit, but the hot streaks of Yusei Kikuchi and Grayson Rodriguez can’t be overlooked. Rodriguez has a 2.35 ERA over his last five starts, holding opposing hitters to a .165 AVG in that span. The rookie appears to have rediscovered what made him so successful in the minors, and he held the Blue Jays to just two hits earlier in the month.

Toronto having Bo Bichette healthy again makes the offense more of a first inning threat, but as long as Rodriguez continues to limit home runs (1 HR allowed since returning from the minors), he seems to have the advantage.

The Orioles haven’t made a habit of scoring right away, as they’re right in the middle of the pack with 0.52 first inning runs per game. The numbers simply don’t work in their favor against Kikuchi, who hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER in a start since the second half began.

Kikuchi’s FIP isn’t as strong as his ERA, but he’s dropped both down by nearly a run over the past six weeks and hasn’t given up a home run in his last six starts. As long as both pitchers are confusing hitters like this, -118 is decent enough value for a NRFI bet.

Nationals vs. Yankees YRFI (-113)

Do the Nationals have your attention yet? They’ve done plenty of winning in the second half, and they’re sixth in first inning runs per game (0.63) this season.

Washington has its share of issues, but the lineup is producing even after trading Jeimer Candelario. CJ Abrams, Lane Thomas, Keibert Ruiz, and Joey Meneses are all real threats and often make up the top four spots in Dave Martinez’s lineup. This feels like an opportunity to pounce on Carlos Rodon, who’s just returning from the IL and has looked totally uncomfortable in pinstripes to this point.

The Yankees’ offense is decidedly less inspiring, but with Aaron Judge healthy and some young players entering the lineup to deliver a spark, there should be some concern about Josiah Gray. Gray has been pretty stellar on the road, but his 4.81 FIP and high WHIP hinted at the recent regression he’s had. It’s not impossible for the Yankees to get something going early, though it’s less likely than a Nationals run. I’ll take the value here at -113.