MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Wednesday’s Slate (8/30/23)

All 30 teams are set to play on Wednesday, including starts from Gerrit Cole and Framber Valdez. As the chase for the postseason continues, so does the chase for NRFI and YRFI bets. Let’s take a look at some of the best options on the board for Wednesday.

MLB Best NRFI and YRFI Bets for August 30

Here’s a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets from Wednesday’s slate of games.

White Sox vs. Orioles NRFI (-106)

The numbers game makes a -106 line look pretty attractive for this game. The Orioles have hit very well in August, but despite their huge success this season, they’re not a team that typically gets off to a rapid start. They’re still just 16th in first inning runs per game at 0.52, though that mark is a step better at home.

Dylan Cease’s FIP indicates positive regression is coming, and that really boils down to just getting his control back. Now facing an Orioles lineup that doesn’t walk often, it’s doable. Cease is still missing bats and, most importantly, limiting home runs. It could be a bounce back outing for him on Wednesday.

The Orioles’ pitching situation isn’t as stable, but it’s hard to put any faith in the White Sox’ lineup. Chicago ranks 26th in baseball at 0.44 first inning runs per game, and the top of the lineup is almost entirely dependent on Luis Robert to drive in runs. It’s not impossible that Robert does exactly that, but this offense’s lack of run production all season is a reminder that it’s not safe to bank on Robert doing it all himself.

Nationals vs. Blue Jays YRFI (-125)

Even at -125, this YRFI bet is worth a look. The Nationals have been a sneaky YRFI play all season, as they’re sixth in baseball with 0.61 first inning runs per game and typically don’t have the pitching to match it.

Washington’s lineup has cooled just a bit with sparkplug Stone Garrett injured, but the gritty Nats picked up another win on Tuesday night and have plenty of contact at the top with CJ Abrams, Joey Meneses, and Lane Thomas.

Chris Bassitt isn’t the easiest assignment, but he is allowing 1.4 HR/9. Patrick Corbin might actually be the easiest assignment. Corbin has been better than he was in 2022, so that might not be a fair statement, but a 5.24 FIP and a rough first inning in New York last week are a reminder that balanced offenses can pounce on him.

The Blue Jays are without Bo Bichette, but George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have both flashed a little bit of power lately and have a chance to strike quickly even with their lack of first inning success this season.

Guardians vs. Twins NRFI (-125)

When all else fails, AL Central NRFI. Sonny Gray has been a machine early in games. His struggles beyond the 5th inning are well documented and could hurt the Twins in the postseason, but he’s been dominant in the early innings. That includes a pristine 0.69 ERA in the first inning.

Why is Gray so safe? He’s allowed just six home runs in 150 IP, including zero in the first inning. Against a Guardians team that has no healthy power threats outside of Jose Ramirez, he should settle in quickly.

Tanner Bibee could do the same against Minnesota. The rookie has gone 12 consecutive starts without allowing more than 3 ER, and he’s pitched a scoreless first inning in six of his last seven outings. The Twins’ offense has taken a big step forward in August, partly due to the recent success of a healthy Royce Lewis. Bibee has stepped up in big moments as a rookie and has shown he has what it takes to quiet the lineup – at least early on.

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