MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Tuesday’s Slate (9/12/23)

It’ll be another busy day of baseball on Tuesday, with 17 games on the schedule including two doubleheaders. Zack Wheeler and Max Scherzer are among the big-name pitchers on the mound, but without too many aces starting, will there be great opportunities for NRFI bets?

Let’s take a look at some of the best NRFI and YRFI bets on the board Tuesday.

MLB Best NRFI and YRFI Bets For September 12

Here’s a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets from Tuesday’s slate of games.

Rays vs. Twins NRFI (-130)

The Rays have turned Zack Littell from an opener/long reliever type into a legitimate starter, simply because they needed another starter. So far, it’s worked out well. Littell still does his best work in the first inning, where he has an 0.82 ERA and is allowing a .512 OPS.

The Twins are near the middle of the pack when it comes to first inning runs, and they’ve seemingly become more dangerous with the recent emergence of Royce Lewis near the top of their lineup. Even so, Minnesota has gone three consecutive games without scoring in the first inning, and it would make sense that Littell gets off to his typical strong start on Tuesday.

Joe Ryan will be tested – the Rays have hit well early in games of late – but Ryan is holding opposing hitters to a .679 OPS in the first and has a 2.40 ERA overall since returning from the IL in August. The second and third innings have been where Ryan gets hurt. In the first, there’s a strong chance he can find success on Tuesday.

Guardians vs. Giants YRFI (-108)

Neither of these teams has a super reliable offense, but it’s a bit surprising to see the line lean toward a NRFI when the starting pitchers have a combined -1.0 WAR on the season.

Cal Quantrill has been steadier in his last two starts, but he has a 7.20 first inning ERA this season and is allowing 10 hits per nine innings. The Giants have flashed a bit of power recently between Wilmer Flores, Thairo Estrada, and Mike Yastrzemski, who could all be near the top of the lineup on Tuesday.

The Guardians have Josh Naylor back in the lineup and will be facing an unsteady Sean Manaea. Manaea functioned as a reliever until recently, so he’s made limited appearances in the first inning, but he has a 5.00 ERA on the year and has seen his walk rate become a real problem.

The Guardians can’t be relied on to score via the home run, but a free pass or two from Manaea can allow their high-contact top of the lineup to do a bit of damage. There’s strong value on this YRFI line at -108.

Orioles vs. Cardinals YRFI (-136)

The value isn’t great on this line, but Adam Wainwright has been such a mess this season that he alone makes this YRFI bet worth a look. Wainwright has been unspeakably bad, carrying an 8.19 ERA and -2.5 WAR into the final few starts of his career. He gave up four home runs in his most recent start, albeit against the powerful braves.

While the Orioles haven’t been a terrific first inning offense this season, the home/road splits are big – Baltimore is 6th in first inning runs at home and 24th on the road. Facing Wainwright, with Gunnar Henderson’s hot hitting, odds of an early run are solid.

The Orioles also don’t know what they’re getting out of John Means, who will be making his first start in over a year. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Means have some ups and downs, like any Tommy John recipient, in his first few starts after returning. The Cardinals average 0.55 first inning runs per game.

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