MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Tuesday’s Slate (9/19/23)

It’s a full day of baseball on Tuesday as the regular season inches to a close. With under two weeks left, there are still a few more days to lock in some NRFI and YRFI bets, including some attractive lines on Tuesday.

Let’s take a look at some of the best NRFI and YRFI bets on the board.

MLB Best NRFI and YRFI Bets for September 19

Here’s a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets from Tuesday’s slate of games.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees NRFI (-111)

It’s been a pretty disappointing year for the Blue Jays’ offense, and that’s reflected in their first inning run totals. Toronto is 20th in baseball with 0.39 first inning runs per game on the road and 29th overall. It could be a quiet start against Clarke Schmidt on Tuesday.

The middling Yankees starter has a 3.72 first inning ERA, holding hitters to a sub-.700 OPS, and a good portion of that damage came very early in the season. While still a hit-or-miss arm, Schmidt
has a 3.92 ERA over his last 20 starts and after posting a 6.30 ERA in his first nine outings.

The Yankees, on the other hand, are at the bottom of the league in batting average. With Yusei Kikuchi doing a much better job of avoiding walks and bringing sky-high home run totals down, he should be set up well against what’s been a low-contact top of the Yankees lineup.

Phillies vs. Braves YRFI (-118)

Ol’ reliable. The Braves have been historically dominant in the first inning this season, and it’s worth taking advantage of this line that is partly the result of Spencer Strider’s swing-and-miss stuff.

Strider’s underlying numbers are excellent, but they don’t account for the fact he does tend to get hit hard when he’s not missing bats. The Phillies haven’t had much success against him this season, but with Trea Turner hitting as well as he is and Bryce Harper’s power back, the potential is there – the Braves saw it on Monday when the Phillies scored seven runs in the first six innings.

The Braves are, of course, the team with the better chance of scoring early. While Cristopher Sanchez has pitched well this season and walks very few hitters, he does allow home runs (1.4 per nine innings). No team hits home runs like the Braves, and no team scores quickly like the Braves. This looks like a decent value for a YRFI, considering the offenses.

Guardians vs. Royals NRFI (+104)

There’s some nice value on this NRFI line for two teams that just don’t score many runs. The inexperience of Royals opener Steven Cruz may be the biggest reason, but his high ERA is simply the result of an ugly MLB debut. Since then, he hasn’t allowed an earned run and has only allowed a baserunner in one of his last four appearances.

Making his first appearance as an opener, Cruz went two scoreless innings and struck out four last time out. Even with Josh Naylor back for Cleveland, Cruz should be able to handle the Guardians’ low-power lineup.

The Royals hit better at home than they do on the road, but they’ve gone scoreless in the first inning in four of their last five games. Rookie Logan Allen could be a tough assignment after back-to-back resurgent starts. Allen has allowed a disproportionate number of home runs in the first – more than he has in any other inning combined – but he dominates the second inning. That has to even out at some point, and the Royals having Maikel Garcia (4 HR) as their leadoff hitter should give Allen a quick out to settle down.

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