MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Tuesday’s Slate (9/26/23)

The final week of the MLB regular season is here, and the final stretch really begins on Tuesday after a quiet Monday around baseball. This is one of the last opportunities for a full slate of NRFI bets, with 15 games around baseball.

Let’s take a look at some of the best NRFI and YRFI bets on the board for this Tuesday.

MLB Best NRFI and YRFI Bets for September 26

Here’s a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets from Tuesday’s slate of games.

Nationals vs. Orioles NRFI (-125)

Kyle Bradish has been impeccable in the first inning this season, with a 0.96 ERA across 28 starts. Opposing hitters are batting just .111 with a .322 OPS (0 HRs) in the first against him this season.

The Nationals rank surprisingly high in terms of first inning runs per game, with CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas hitting well at the top of the lineup and Joey Meneses making consistent contact. On the road against a pitcher as reliable as Bradish, however, the outlook isn’t a positive one.

The Orioles don’t hit too well in the first inning overall, but the numbers are much better at home. Can Josiah Gray keep them off the board? Gray has a 3.10 first inning ERA and .673 opponent OPS. He’s really struggled after the third inning, but that’s not an NRFI bettor’s concern. This line is solid enough to lock in.

Reds vs. Guardians YRFI (+102)

There’s some real value on this YRFI line at +102. Lucas Giolito had an excellent start about two weeks ago, but he’s otherwise been extremely volatile with any of the three teams he’s spent time with this season. Many of his blowups have come early in games. Giolito has a 6.39 first inning ERA, allowing a .299 AVG and .977 OPS in the first.

Now facing a Reds team that has plenty on the line and just averaged seven runs per game in a series against the Pirates, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Cincinnati pounce on Giolito early.

Hunter Greene has started to look extremely comfortable of late, striking out 14 Twins last week. He’s the biggest reason the line leans toward a NRFI, which is fair. Still, it’s worth taking a look at a Guardians offense that doesn’t strike out often against a pitcher who relies so much on strikeouts. Giolito facing the Reds alone makes a YRFI bet worth its while.

Padres vs. Giants YRFI (-111)

Giants rookie Kyle Harrison has had a tough time settling into games through six starts. He has a 7.50 ERA in both the first and second innings, but that turns into a sub-2 ERA in the following three innings. Could a hot Padres lineup get to him early?

San Diego’s offense struggled on Monday, and there’s some concern the group could be deflated on the verge of elimination, but both Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts have been undeniably impressive over the last two weeks. Facing a rookie starter who takes time to get comfortable in games, they might be able to pounce quickly.

The outlook is bleaker for the Giants as they face Seth Lugo, who is far from a sure thing for the Padres but has held opposing hitters to a .627 OPS in the first inning. At 0.45 runs per first inning, the Giants are more of a flier while the Padres provide the value on making this YRFI bet.

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Dan is a lifelong sports fan and graduate of Boston University. He’s covered several sports on Instagram since he was 12 and now writes about everything from betting trends to breaking news for Lineups.

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