MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday’s Slate (9/29/23)

This is it. The last weekend of the regular season is here, and there are only three more full slates of games to find the best NRFI and YRFI bets. Let’s take a look at some of the best bets from this crucial Friday night schedule as the postseason rapidly approaches.

MLB Best NRFI and YRFI Bets for September 29

Here’s a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets from Friday’s slate of games.

Red Sox vs. Orioles NRFI (-125)

There isn’t a ton of value on the line, but an NRFI in this spot seems pretty safe. The Orioles will be putting out their hangover lineup after quite the celebration on Thursday, so don’t expect the typical Orioles power right at the top.

That doesn’t mean Nick Pivetta will necessarily cruise through the game, but he is coming off perhaps his best start of the season and has pitched well over his last five starts with 3 ER or fewer in each.

The Orioles will put John Means on the mound against a Red Sox offense that is decisively worse on the road than at home. Means has been excellent since returning from Tommy John Surgery. Two home runs in his first start back stand as the only serious blemishes so far: he’s allowed just five hits between his last two starts (12.1 IP).

It could be a quiet start for the Orioles’ offense, for obvious reasons, and Means has what it takes to put a zero on the board himself.

Phillies vs. Mets YRFI (-115)

Don’t let Taijuan Walker’s 15-5 record fool you — he’s had some concerning trends of late, including rough first innings. Walker has a 6.37 first inning ERA, with a .301 AVG and .879 OPS by opponents. Overall, he has a 5.48 ERA since the start of August and is losing his grip on a spot in the Phillies’ postseason rotation or on the roster.

A Mets team with nothing to play for could strike early against Walker, especially with Francisco Lindor coming off a 3-HR day and Pete Alonso still swinging away.

It’s also hard to trust Tylor Megill, who has better first inning numbers but surrendered nine hits in a start two weeks ago and was tagged for 3 ER by these same Phillies last week. We know the Phillies can score early and often, even when they’re no longer playing for seeding. -113 is a decent line for a first inning run here if the game is played.

Guardians vs. Tigers NRFI (-108)

This is a flier because of the value on the line, which is unusual for the AL Central. Cal Quantrill’s season numbers are nothing impressive, to say the least, but he’s been much more like himself since returning to the majors early in September. Over his last five starts, Quantrill has a .195 ERA and a .622 opponent OPS.

While the Tigers have some power, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter have not been raking like they were a week ago. An otherwise quiet, low-contact Detroit offense is bottom-10 in first inning runs per game and not a safe bet to strike early on Friday.

Joey Wentz has struggled for Detroit, and there’s no sugarcoating it. The Guardians also haven’t scored in the first inning in any of their last four games, and they’re a low-power team playing on the road in a ballpark that isn’t suited for home runs. Unless Cleveland can string together 3+ hits against Wentz, an early run isn’t too likely.