MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Tuesday’s Slate (9/5/23)

All 30 MLB teams will be in action on Tuesday as postseason races continue to heat up. Cy Young races are heating up as well, and Tuesday’s action will be important with Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray among the big-name pitchers on the hill.

Let’s take a look at some of the best NRFI and YRFI bets on the board Tuesday.

MLB Best NRFI and YRFI Bets for September 5

Here’s a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets from Tuesday’s slate of games.

Twins vs. Guardians NRFI (-128)

We’re going to keep hammering Sonny Gray NRFIs until it fails. Gray has been among the safest NRFI pitchers this season, dominating early in games. He’s had a hard time succeeding past the fifth inning, but that’s not the concern of NRFI bettors.

Gray, going up against a Guardians lineup light on power, has allowed just six home runs in 157 IP this season. He tossed seven shutout innings against Cleveland last week, and he has a phenomenal 0.67 ERA in the first inning this season.

On the other side, rookie Tanner Bibee has been very steady himself. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last 13 starts, and a 4.09 first inning ERA seems like an anomaly considering he’s holding opposing hitters to a .198 AVG and .611 OPS in the first.

The Twins have become a more dangerous offensive team since Royce Lewis returned and became an everyday player, but Bibee got the job done last week and is in position to get it done again.

Phillies vs. Padres YRFI (-115)

The Padres’ long, winding road to a disappointing finish now has them starting Pedro Avila, who has an 8.57 ERA in 55.2 minor-league innings this season. Runs are up at the AAA level, but not to the point that anyone should be comfortable with that kind of figure.

Avila performed surprisingly well early in his time at the MLB level this season, but he’s been tagged for a total of 11 runs in his last 7.1 IP. A Phillies lineup that hit a ridiculous 59 home runs in August with a .905 OPS should be in line to strike early and often against Avila.

It’ll be tougher for the Padres to get to Lorenzen, but San Diego’s offense can’t be ignored after averaging 4.9 runs per game over their last 10. Juan Soto just had three home runs in one weekend, and San Diego is fourth in baseball in first inning runs (0.67 per game). With Lorenzen giving up 8 hits in each of his last three starts, -115 is a solid value for what looks like a great chance at some early runs on Tuesday.

Orioles vs. Angels NRFI (-105)

This may not look like the best NRFI opportunity on the surface, but there’s plenty of value on a -105 line. The Orioles, despite their AL-best record, have not been so great in the first inning this season. That’s been especially true on the road, where they’re averaging 0.38 first inning runs per game (24th in baseball).

With a .233 AVG and sub-.700 OPS in the first inning, Reid Detmers and his strong first inning numbers (3.00 ERA, .177 opponent AVG) may be set up for a quick start. Detmers has been a mess in other innings, but it might be best to trust the numbers here.

An Angels team that might be without Shohei Ohtani and only has one hot hitter – Luis Rengifo – near the top of its lineup may have a tough time scoring early against Dean Kremer. Kremer has allowed 1 ER between his last two starts and just needs to get over some home run issues.
That becomes much easier if Ohtani isn’t healthy.

Kremer’s poor first inning numbers may be an anomaly when you look at his excellent second inning numbers. Facing an Angels team in dire straits, this seems like a chance for Kremer to even it all out.

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Dan is a lifelong sports fan and graduate of Boston University. He’s covered several sports on Instagram since he was 12 and now writes about everything from betting trends to breaking news for Lineups.

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