MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday’s Slate (6/16/23)

All 30 MLB teams will be in action on Friday, as the Yankees and Red Sox begin their second series in as many weeks and the Giants renew their rivalry with the Dodgers. Shane McClanahan, Zac Gallen, and Sandy Alcantara will be among the big-name starters taking the hill. Let’s take a look at where we can find the most NRFI or YRFI value.

MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For June 16

Here’s a look at the best NRFI/YRFI bets from Friday’s slate of MLB games.

Yankees vs. Red Sox NRFI (+102)

This line might be giving a bit too much credit to both of these offenses. The Yankees have had some clutch hitting without Aaron Judge, but on an inning-by-inning basis, their lineup has mostly been dull during his latest absence. Until he returns, we might see more of this sluggish Yankees lineup early in games.

Tanner Houck has been a disappointment for the Red Sox this season, but he pitched pretty well in his start against the Yankees last week, allowing only three hits across six innings. His outlook is fine.

On the other side, Domingo German has been quietly terrific of late. German has a 2.20 ERA since the start of May, with a .178 opponent AVG. His FIP indicates regression is likely at some point, but after he handled business against the Red Sox last week, his chances of first inning success certainly seem solid.

Rays vs. Padres YRFI (+108)

A scoreless first inning is rightfully favored in this one, with Shane McClanahan and Yu Darvish on the mound, but that means there could be some value on a YRFI.

McClanahan has been worse on the road – by ERA, the difference doesn’t seem too serious, but his WHIP is a concerning 1.40 away from Tropicana Field. That might not mesh well with a Padres offense that is finally starting to see some life at the top of the lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been red hot, while Manny Machado has heated up and Juan Soto could take advantage if McClanahan’s control issues pop up.

Yu Darvish has been less than stellar this season with a 4.30 ERA and his highest walk rate in five years. We know the top of the Rays’ lineup (and the bottom of it) can hit. The outlook for Tampa might not be great with Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz not hitting for the same kind of power as they did earlier in the season, but with their contact bats and Wander Franco close to the top of the lineup, it’s certainly possible they put an early run on the board.

Guardians vs. Diamondbacks NRFI (128)

There isn’t eye-popping value on this one, but it has the feel of a freebie with two terrific pitchers on the mound. It would be pretty surprising if Zac Gallen struggled like he did against the Tigers. Back-to-back rough starts for a pitcher like him against shaky offenses? All indications are that he’s too good for that to happen.

The Guardians have three singles hitters surrounding Jose Ramirez, making Ramirez the only real threat to a scoreless first inning for Cleveland opponents on most nights. Gallen’s underlying numbers say he’s been even better than the raw numbers indicate – this offense can give him a chance to show it.

The Diamondbacks’ lineup is much better, but Triston McKenzie has the swing-and-miss stuff to throw any offense off track. McKenzie has made only two starts this season – one dominant, one not very impressive. As he settles in and regains his arsenal, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him get through Corbin Carroll and the top of Arizona’s lineup.