MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday’s Slate (7/7/23)

All 30 teams are back in action on Friday as the final weekend before the all-star break gets started. Between Carlos Rodon’s Yankees debut and Alek Manoah’s MLB return, there are plenty of games worth closely watching. Which ones should you watch for a NRFI or YRFI bet? Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets for this packed Friday slate.

MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For July 7

Here’s a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets for Friday July 7th.

Royals vs. Guardians NRFI (-120)

This is a matchup of two teams who are bottom-five in the league in runs per game and two pitchers who seem to be hitting their stride.

The Royals are easily baseball’s worst run-scoring team on the road, averaging just 3.33 runs per game. That’s great news for Aaron Civale, who has quietly been a steady presence for the Guardians since returning from the IL in early June. Over his last six starts, he has a 3.00 ERA and .221 AVG against. Civale’s FIP indicates regression should come at some point, but it’s hard to believe a broken Royals offense will be the one to get to him early.

On the other side, Daniel Lynch will be facing a Guardians offense that still doesn’t have enough power. Josh Naylor has been terrific at the plate lately and Jose Ramirez can hit one out on any night, but the top of Cleveland’s lineup – led by Steven Kwan – hits too many singles to be consistently effective.

Lynch, a former top prospect, has been somewhat of a bright spot for the Royals in a bad season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in six of his seven starts and carrying a 2.00 ERA over his last three outings. A 4-HR implosion against the Reds stands out as his only rough outing of the year, and he should have enough in the tank to post a scoreless first on Friday.

Mets vs. Padres YRFI (+100)

The Mets and Padres have two big-name pitchers on the mound Friday in Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish, but neither has been impeccable this season. You could say the same about both offenses, but both seem to be heating up near the top of the lineup.

Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have gotten hot for the Mets, as has Francisco Alvarez further down the lineup. Lindor is coming off a four-hit night, and he has three home runs in his last nine games. With the ultra-consistent Brandon Nimmo at the top, it won’t be so easy for Darvish to navigate. Darvish has a 6.75 ERA over his last seven starts and has seen his typically strong WHIP take a hit this season.

The Padres’ offense has left much to be desired this season, but it’s tough to complain with the production lately at the top of the lineup. Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting like he wants to be in the MVP conversation, Juan Soto is an on-base machine, and Manny Machado is 9 for his last 20 with three home runs.

If Verlander is due for a setback after back-to-back starts without an earned run, this Padres offense is built to strike early.

Braves vs. Rays YRFI (-115)

This one is all about the Braves’ lineup. Aside from the fact Atlanta boasts the best offense in baseball right now, this Braves team has made a habit of bludgeoning teams in the first inning. They did it again on Wednesday with four runs off of Cal Quantrill in Cleveland, and Tyler Glasnow could be their next victim.

Glasnow has struck out 23 batters in his last two starts, but he hasn’t been immune to some tough nights. He has a 4.50 ERA through seven starts this season and has had some control issues even as his strikeout rate continues to be sky-high. The Braves are talented enough to make him pay for any free passes he allows particularly with his elevated home run rate.

The Rays’ offense adds some value to this YRFI bet. The upside isn’t tremendous with Charlie Morton pitching pretty well of late, but having two major on-base threats in Yandy Diaz and Wander Franco at the top of the lineup gives the Rays a chance to plate a run early.