MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Saturday’s Slate (7/15/23)

The second half of the MLB season began on Friday night, and there’s even more action on Saturday with 17+ games thanks to some doubleheaders and the resumption of a suspended game. With Spencer Strider, Framber Valdez, George Kirby, and Zac Gallen among the big-name starters on the mound, let’s take a look at the best NRFI bets for Saturday along with relevant NRFI odds and analysis.

MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets for July 15

Here’s a look at the best NRFI/YRFI bets for Saturday’s slate of MLB games.

Brewers vs. Reds NRFI (-105)

The Reds still looked sluggish at the plate on Friday, getting totally shut down by Corbin Burnes. Freddy Peralta is not Burnes, but he has similar swing-and-miss ability.

After seeing his strikeout rate tank early in the season, Peralta has 8+ strikeouts in three of his last four starts and 18 over his last two outings alone. While home runs have been an issue of late and could hurt Peralta again on Friday, Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer hit low enough in the lineup that he has a chance to avoid both in the 1st inning.

Andrew Abbott got hit hard by the Brewers in his last start, but that stands as his only rough outing as a major-leaguer so far. The Brewers aren’t as favorable of an NRFI team as they once were, now that Willy Adames is back and Christian Yelich is hitting well, but this is still a light-hitting Milwaukee team that didn’t start the second half well at the plate. -105 is solid value.

Guardians vs. Rangers NRFI (-110)

This is another game with real value on a NRFI. The Guardians are 23rd in first inning runs this season, much of that having to do with how singles-dependent the top of their lineup. While Josh Naylor has single-handedly made Cleveland a little less safe for NRFI bets with how well he’s hit in the cleanup spot over the last month, he hasn’t been able to do it all himself.

It’ll be interesting to see how Andrew Heaney responds after imploding against the Nationals last time out. Last time he had a start that rough, he bounced back with an excellent outing against the Astros.

Rookie Gavin Williams gets a lethal top of the Rangers lineup. Fortunately for Williams, Marcus Semien hasn’t hit well for a number of weeks now and could get his inning off to a solid start.

It wouldn’t be surprising if the Rangers needed some time to figure Williams out. The top prospect has swing-and-miss stuff and has yet to allow a first inning run through four starts. Some lineups have caught up to him later on, but that’s not a NRFI bettor’s concern on Saturday.

White Sox vs. Braves YRFI (+104)

Lance Lynn is coming off his best start of the season, allowing one hit over seven innings while striking out 11, but it’s been a pretty rough year for the veteran. With a 6.03 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, Lynn’s recent track record could spell trouble against a Braves team that has been utterly dominant in the 1st inning this season.

Atlanta’s barrage of 1st inning runs continued with a Matt Olson grand slam on Friday night, and every single hitter near the top of the Braves’ lineup is capable of homering on any given night. Lynn has allowed more home runs than any pitcher in baseball with 22, and the Braves are somehow averaging north of one run per first inning on the year.

There’s enough value here to bank on an early Braves run, even if Spencer Strider has a great chance to shut down the White Sox in the first.