MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Sunday’s Slate (7/30/23)

All 30 teams are in action to close out the weekend, ending with a big-time rubber match between the Yankees and Orioles. Blake Snell and Luis Castillo headline the aces on the mound Sunday, but the biggest headline might be whether Justin Verlander is making his final start with the Mets. Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best NRFI and YRFI bets from Sunday’s games.

MLB Best NRFI/YRFI Bets For July 30

Here’s a look at the best NRFI and YRFI bets from Sunday’s slate of games.

Guardians vs. White Sox NRFI (+100)

Underlying numbers have indicated for a while now that Aaron Civale should be due for some regression, but he hasn’t let it happen yet. In fact, he’s seemingly only gotten stronger. Civale (2.54 ERA) has his FIP down to 3.60, and he lasted eight strong innings in his last start.

The light-hitting offenses of the AL Central have been a reason for his success, and he’ll face another on Sunday. Jake Burger is still hitting far enough down in the lineup to not be much of a first inning threat, leaving two singles hitters in front of Luis Robert. As long as Civale handles Robert, he should be able to get through unscathed.

Michael Kopech has been less than stellar with a 4.44 ERA and concerning 6.09 FIP. It’s a similar situation as Civale’s, though. The Guardians don’t get much power at all out of the top two hitters in their lineup, leaving only Jose Ramirez and potentially Josh Naylor as the only concerns. Home runs are an issue for Kopech, but he generally limits hits. If he can take care of Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez, bettors should take their chances with Kopech retiring Ramirez.

Tigers vs. Marlins NRFI (-146)

The line doesn’t give a ton of value here, but it’s still worthwhile. The over/under for the entire game is just seven runs because Jesus Luzardo and Tarik Skubal have been so solid lately. Luzardo has a 1.23 ERA over his last six starts, and he’s gone seven consecutive outings without allowing a first inning run.

A Tigers offense that ranks 28th in runs per game is unlikely to threaten that streak. Riley Greene has been one of baseball’s hottest contact hitters, but with his power still lagging behind, he can’t do it all on his own.

Skubal has been a very nice surprise after missing nearly a year after surgery. He had one disastrous start in Kansas City but didn’t allow a run in any of his other three starts. With Jorge Soler mired in a power drought, the Marlins are becoming a safer NRFI team. After getting shut out on Friday, one more scoreless inning seems likely.

Yankees vs. Orioles YRFI (-128)

Luis Severino didn’t walk any hitters in his last start, but that was one of the only signs of progress as he allowed eight hits and three runs in 5.2 IP against a lowly Royals lineup. He was knocked around by the Orioles earlier in the month, surrendering 7 ER and failing to get out of the third inning.

The Orioles’ offense has been quiet so far in this series, but the top of the lineup is far too talented for this drought to last. Until Severino puts together more than a start or two without blowing up, a YRFI bet makes sense.

Which Dean Kremer will the Orioles get on Sunday night? He struggled against the Yankees in April but was excellent in his last start vs. New York. Judge might not be in the Yankees’ lineup on Sunday, adding a little more juice to this line, but bettors should be willing to take the chance on a YRFI with Severino struggling and Kremer volatile.

Dan is a lifelong sports fan and graduate of Boston University. He’s covered several sports on Instagram since he was 12 and now writes about everything from betting trends to breaking news for Lineups.

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