MLB NRFI/YRFI Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday’s Slate (6/6/23)

The MLB slate on Tuesday, June 6 offers a full slate of 15 games to bet on run lines, over/unders and MLB player props. MLB bettors looking for some other bets to place should consider an increasingly popular MLB bet: No Run First Inning (NRFI) and Yes Run First Inning (YRFI). This article analyzes today’s NRFI and YRFI betting odds and recommends the best NRFI bets and the best YRFI bets to make on MLB games on 6/6/23.

6/6 NRFI/YRFI Best Bets

Here are the best NRFI and YRFI bets to place on Tuesday, June 6.

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians NRFI (-115 at FanDuel)

Starting pitchers: LHP James Paxton (1-1, 4.26 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (4-3, 3.72 ERA)

This NRFI pick has a little bit to do with the pitching matchup and a lot to do with the slumping lineups. Both of these offenses have been struggling over the last two weeks, with the Guardians 24th in runs scored and the Red Sox 21st. That is nothing new for Cleveland, which has scored the third-fewest runs on the season, but it’s a steep decline for Boston, who is 4th in the league in runs scored for the whole season.

Despite being one of the league’s better offenses on the year, the Red Sox are just 17th in runs scored in the first inning, while the Guardians are 23rd. The Red Sox’s bats can explode at any time, but they have a tough pitching matchup today against a former Cy Young winner in Shane Bieber.

Bieber is looking to bounce back from his worst outing of the season on May 31, when he allowed 7 earned runs in just four innings against Baltimore. Over his career, he has generally started well, sporting a 2.56 ERA in the first inning, and he has logged a 2.25 mark through his first 12 starts this season. The three first-inning runs he has allowed came in consecutive starts in mid-April, and he has pitched eight consecutive scoreless first innings.

Paxton allowed 2 runs in his first inning of the season but has thrown scoreless first innings in his last three starts. After missing the last two seasons due to Tommy John Surgery, the former ace is starting to look like his old self.

With two solid pitchers on the mound and two slumping offenses, I will take the -115 odds on a NRFI in this game.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds YRFI (-118 at FanDuel)

Starting pitchers: RHP Tony Gonsolin (3-1, 1.77 ERA) vs. RHP Luke Weaver (1-2, 5.36 ERA)

Gonsolin has been lights out for the Dodgers this season and holds one of the lowest ERAs in baseball (though he’s not qualified for the official standings based on innings pitched). In seven starts, he has yet to allow a run in the first inning. He also allowed only two first-inning runs in 24 starts last season.

However, one of those two first-inning runs last season came against this same Reds team in this same stadium, Great American Ballpark. That is significant because Great American Ballpark is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. Gonsolin gave up two solo home runs in each of the first two innings last time he pitched in Cincinnati, and there is at least a decent chance of a similar storyline in this game.

Even more appealing is the matchup between the Dodgers’ lineup and Reds’ starter Luke Weaver, who has allowed first-inning runs in three of his eight starts this season (seven runs total). The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in the league and have scored the second-most first-inning runs in the majors so far this season. They are also tied for the most first-inning home runs this season with 17.

These two offenses are both in the top three in runs scored over the last two weeks and have plenty of pop to score early against these starting pitchers. I normally want better odds than -118 for a YRFI, but I’m still betting on the YRFI in this matchup.

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves NRFI (+112 at FanDuel)

Starting pitchers: RHP Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.74 ERA) vs. RHP Bryce Elder (3-0, 1.92 ERA)

It’s not often that you can bet on a NRFI at better than even money. Those odds are especially enticing when you have one of the best pitchers in baseball this season taking the mound.

Elder’s 1.92 ERA is the best in the majors (among qualifying pitchers) so far this season. The 24-year-old has allowed just two runs in the first inning in his 11 starts this season, and the Mets are dead last in scoring in the first inning. It would be a major surprise if the Mets can get to Elder early in the game.

The matchup between Mets starter Carlos Carrasco and the Braves’ potent lineup is the reason for the +112 odds on a NRFI. Carrasco is susceptible to giving up early runs, having allowed first-inning runs in two of his three starts since returning from the IL.

The Braves are not only one of the best offenses in baseball (top 5 in both runs and OPS), but they are also the best in the league in the first inning. They lead the majors in runs, home runs, average and OPS in the first frame. That is not a good combination against a pitcher with Carrasco’s recent track record.

Despite those numbers, Carrasco still has a decent chance of keeping the Braves off the board in the first inning. Baseball is, after all, a sport of failure, and the likeliest outcome is still that Carrasco gets three outs with no runners crossing home plate.

Carrasco has allowed just two earned runs in his last 12-2/3 innings. He also pitched well against the Braves last season, with a 3.38 ERA in three starts. That gives me enough confidence to take the plus money odds on the NRFI in this game.